Ledley King went down with a groin strain in the 30th minute of Tottenham’s draw with Newcastle United at St. James’ Park on Sunday. Leading 1-0, Spurs conspired to blow two leads after King’s departure. King is no stranger to the physio room and has been beset by injury problems ever since the 2004-05 season: the only one of his career in which he started every game in the league. Since then, the overall failure of his knees, coupled with a list of injuries related to his inability to train properly, has seen him miss 129 out of Spurs last 235 league matches. He’s only played 106 games in the league since Martin Jol’s first full season in charge of Spurs. Yet, while playing only 45% of the club’s league matches during the past 6+ campaigns, the club has won 53% of its points total in the matches in which King has played.

With him, they have went 56-25-25 (WDL) since August 2005. Without him, they have struggled to 45-39-45. That is 11 less wins, 14 more draws and 20 more losses without their captain during that time span. It’s no wonder Harry sees him as the most important player on the team. It is why Redknapp is forced to risk playing the oft-injured stalwart. And it’s the reason why the club can’t seem to move past his reign.

It’s not often we see defenders of King’s caliber. It is often forgotten, due to the injuries, that King is one of the best defenders England has produced in Premier League era. He has the elusive combination of speed, intelligence, reading and disposition that distinguishes the near greats from the world class. He organizes that back line effectively, never panics and rarely makes a mistake. And when he does, this happens.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7Nb-nU3YJ8

He’s great with his feet and as good in the air. He’s big enough to dominate bruisers and quick enough to negate speedsters. In fact, Ledley King’s only weakness is the pair of legs that grant him such brilliance. Were he healthy, we would speak of him as a peer to Vidic, Lucio and Pique.

It is often demanded by some Spurs supporters that his time has passed and it’s time for the club to move on. After all, he’s 31 with dodgy knees and, on his best day, just between injuries. Yet, he’s impossible to replace. One thing most supporters recognize is that had he been blessed with health that equals his talent, that there is no way he would have stayed at Tottenham. He was meant for the biggest stage, and would have easily found his way to one of Real Madrid or Manchester United if he hadn’t been so damaged. So while a bane, his knees have gifted the White Hart Lane faithful a long-term relationship with a defender of the likes they haven’t seen since Gary Mabbutt. He is mentioned in the same breath as Dave Mackay and Mike England, and deservedly so. So how is it that the club can hope to casually replace one the best defenders to play for it EVER?

Even if Spurs cannot equal his talent, can’t they just find a decent pairing and move forward? Well the numbers say that it’s not that easy. Especially for a club trying to return to the Champions League.

When you look at the numbers since the beginning of 05-06 season, King’s presence within the team has meant more in terms of points per game (PPG) in each season except 2009-10, when the difference was .1 PPG better without him. His inclusion within the team during this span has meant .45 more points per game than his absence. And just in case you don’t quite understand how massive .45 PPG is, here’s a table to show the difference.

Table index: Year, PPG w/out King, PPG with King, Adjusted Points, Actual Points, Change

If we look at each season and apply his PPG to get a total for the season, we see some drastic change. Since his last healthy campaign, the only troublesome spot is the 2009-10 season where Spurs actually made 4th. If he had played all games, Spurs would have tallied .09 PPG less, but would have ended on just two less points and still have nipped City for 4th. Whereas in the other 5 years, Spurs would have finished better. But we’re not talking about a mid-table side. Spurs have been on the brink of the top four many times since Jol’s first full season. If King had been healthy, and we suppose that the PPG would have stayed consistent, Spurs would have broken into the top four back in the Lasagna-gate year. In 2006-07, they would have moved up to 3rd. In the 2007-08 season, the post-Cup hangover, which coincided with a King injury, his PPG would have helped Spurs stay in the top 5. And last year, when they lost the Champions League spot in the second half, they would have come in second place*.

If we look at this in the most simplistic terms, King’s knees have cost Martin Jol, Juande Ramos and Damien Comolli their jobs. Granted this is a very simplistic look at the effect of Ledley King. It overlooks brilliant performances and grants Spurs points against Manchester United, which wouldn’t have been earned with 11 Ledley King’s who could all shoot lasers from their eyes. But it isn’t without value, and rightly shows that Spurs would have never flirted with relegation and would have entered the Champions League as early as 05-06 and the differences these two events would have made into player recruitment, and could have made Tottenham a major force in the league over the past half-dozen years.

But, his knees are as dodgy as a script by Roger Corman, and we have to live with what-ifs. But it does beg the question, how does a team with Tottenham’s wage structure and transfer budget afford any player that is worth 17 points over a season? So you can see why Levy and Redknapp are loathe to shut the book on this great’s career. Ten games with Ledley is better than 38 with the type of players Spurs can afford.

Here’s to his health. Long live the King!

* I used 1.53 + .45 rather than 2.17 to adjust points

The Good

Rafael van der Vaart was an inspiring signing by Daniel Levy and Harry Redknapp two summers ago. Bought for a mere £8 million from Real Madrid, he immediately made an impact in a new league. Typically one expects a foreign import to take three months to adapt to the pace and physicality of the Premier League, but van der Vaart needed no such adjustment and by that October was named the Barclay’s Player of the Month. He made an even quicker impact for Spurs in the Champions League, where his experience was instrumental for a novice UCL side. He provided a goal and an assist in their first two group matches ever, securing four points that would help them win a solid group that included the holders Inter, Werder Bremen and FC Twente. By January he had scored 10 goals and provided 5 assists in the league and Europe. By the end of the season, he had scored a quarter of Spurs league goals (13), had a total of 15, added 9 assists and played 28 league games and 7 Champions League matches. This season, he has 2 goals in 5 matches. But most important to many supporters, he has scored four times in three matches against Arsenal.

He has been a very positive signing for Tottenham both on the pitch and off. Already the most public face of Tottenham, he arrived as a celebrity player of the likes Spurs hadn’t signed since David Ginola. He has been a pervasive voice for the club in the press, with whom he has a great relationship based on his gregariousness. With a super-model wife, who bucks the trend of trashy WAG’s, he has given the club a very cosmopolitan feel.

So what could be wrong?

The Bad

The issue is not the talent or ability. Both are there in abundance for the Dutchman. But there is an issue, which comes down, as it always does, to the system. Most people don’t realize that Tottenham are built to be almost indistinguishable from the Sevilla side of Juande Ramos, which won consecutive UEFA Cups. This was a system that Damien Comolli started to implement long before the embarrassing tapping up of the eventual Tottenham manager. It is based on a deep lying double pivot (hence my moniker), utilizing pace on the wings and athletic backs in a 4-4-2 with a target man and poacher. It’s best when hitting off transition from the defensive half, so that while it can dominate possession, most of its goals come when the other team is stretched.

It just so happens that Ramos’ successor Harry Redknapp is a 4-4-2 style manager and hasn’t seen a need to change the system. In fact, Redknapp has tinkered with the system to get it more like the old Sevilla. Seeing as he had no Daniel Alves style wing-back, he has tried to oust Verdan Corluka with Pascal Chimbonda, Younes Kaboul and Alan Hutton. The more defense minded Croatian has beaten off all completion due to his well crafted partnership with Aaron Lennon. But the arrival of Kyle Walker, who does possess Alves’ ability to get forward as well as mature decision making in defense, may finally be the bombing RB that the system needs. In addition, he moved Luka Modric from the left to a central position to play the role that Maresca did for Sevilla. This left room for the reintroduction of Bale as the pacy left winger the system required. Not having the hard tackling DM of the likes of Poulsen or the tactical defender in Marti, he has sought to fix this by purchasing both Sandro and Scott Parker in successive summers. And realizing that Crouch couldn’t quite replicate the linking role of Kanoute, he brought in Emmanuel Adebayor.

This is a system that Ramos perfected at Sevilla, Comolli tried to buy for while Spurs DoF and that Harry Redknapp has done a better job of replicating then Ramos could while managing the club. It’s a system that works. And when it works, it’s a very entertaining brand of football. It was exciting at Sevilla. It was spectacular two seasons ago, when Spurs piped Liverpool for 4th place. Using Crouch and Defoe as a big-man, small-man pairing it provided a lot of goals from forwards as the speedy Lennon and Bale provided the impetus out wide.

Last year, the system was forced to change. An early season injury to Defoe and the purchase of van der Vaart left Harry without a recognizable 4-4-2. So he improvised and shifted van der Vaart into a false 9 position. But, in reality, the” false” terminology isn’t exactly correct. Van der Vaart played more like an Aussie Rules ruck-rover off of Crouch in the final third. It was a quite unique pairing. And it worked, especially early in the campaign, because defenses didn’t know how to deal with it. As they learned, the pairing lost its proficiency. It became referred to as a 4-4-1-1, which meant it remained a pretty close relative to the system that had brought success to Spurs. But it lacked the flair it once possessed in the league. In Europe it looked like the Mongol Hordes, but in England, the club lost its goal scoring touch. Tottenham never won a game by more than a goal in the league last campaign and scored 12 less than the previous year. And whereas the system had resulted in a forward heavy distribution of goals in 2009-10 (38 of 67), it was the midfield that provided the bulk of the scoring in 2010-11 (31 of 55).

The Ugly

And herein lies the problem. When fit, Rafael van der Vaart will start, or at least he expects to. But he has no place in this Sevilla 4-4-2. He’s not a deep lying CM, a pacy winger or a forward. He’s built for a diamond formation, like at Hamburg SV, or a 4-3-3, like at Ajax. So when he was injured, Adebayor and Defoe formed a partnership that showed itself as a better fit for the system deployed at White Hart Lane. When he returned against Wigan, once again as a ruck-rover, the system was stagnant and the team won by a goal. Last weekend, against Arsenal, Harry experimented with pushing him onto the right with Lennon being injured. Yes, he scored, but he was such a glaring weakness that he had to be pulled for Sandro, so Modric could move to the right in order to keep shape. Van der Vaart kept drifting infield and left Walker exposed and created a 4-3-3 by his unwillingness to play defense. Arsenal’s goal was heavily attributed to the Dutchman’s poor effort to close down Song.

And so we begin this international break with a potential rift in the team. Van der Vaart doesn’t want to play on the right (not that he did) and wants to be played in his proper position. His good relationship with the press will now work against the club, as they are quite willing to listen to such gripes. Much like they were quick to use his complaints about not being put on the Europa League squad: a decision Harry made to save him from the wear and tear of the group stages of that competition.

But the club can’t play him in his natural position without causing issues to the system. Sure Harry could play a diamond, but that means one or two of Sandro, Modric and Parker are now on the bench. The squad lacks the pieces for a 4-3-3. A 4-2-3-1 could be used, but then the wings would be under-exploited, which is a massive strength when Lennon and Bale are healthy. This means that in order to accommodate van der Vaart, the club must revert to a 4-4-1-1; which has become easy to negate over the last year.

So there is trouble brewing at Tottenham. With Lennon almost on the mend, Harry may have to anger one of his prized assets by sitting van der Vaart for the effectiveness of the team; however if he does so, the player will not take it lightly and will most likely use the press in much the same way Harry does, causing internal strife to a club that just settled down after this summer’s Modric saga.

William McGregor, founding father of the Football League in 1888

The focus for a long time was on the “big four” of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United. Tottenham and Manchester City made enough inroads to turn that into the “Sky Six” temporarily. To be honest, most of the noise generated by the media, which drives the fans is about a handful of clubs. If it weren’t for the negativity about Arsenal, you’d be likely to think there are really just two teams in the league this year: United and City.

Fans eagerly allow this media bias to help form their opinions about other clubs, often calling them “small.” That’s not to say there aren’t smaller or bigger clubs in the Premier League currently. Based on grounds or history, obviously Wigan or Swansea are smaller than United or Arsenal. But they aren’t that small. And it doesn’t mean they are without history and accomplishment. In fact of the Sky Six, do you know how many are founding members of the Football League? None. But that was in 1888, so obviously those clubs no longer matter. Nope! Seven of the 12 founding members are in the top flight today and Derby Co. and Burnley have been back in recent seasons.

For the record, the 12 that started all of this are Accrington (the only one to fold), Aston Villa, Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers, Burnley, Derby County, Everton, Notts County, Preston North End, Stoke, West Bromwich Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

That means that seven clubs in the EPL already have a deeper story than the media would have you believe. The next time somebody calls Blackburn or West Brom a small club, it would be wise to remind them that they won their first F.A. Cups in 1884 and 1888 respectively, before Chelsea, Newcastle and Liverpool even existed. And if somebody asks “Who is Stoke City,” then the answer is Notts County’s only contemporary.

This isn’t an indictment of the Sky Six, Big Four or the City/Chelsea petro-era. This is a plea to respect all clubs because in the league there is only one club that was born post WWI (Wigan Athletic) and only a few that have no major silverware. This is a list of all 20 EPL clubs and their honours by year of birth:

1863
Stoke City (as Stoke Ramblers or Stoke FC until 1928) are the second oldest football team in the world. They do not have as many honours as most clubs but they did come in second in the First Division in 1947 and made the final of the F.A. Cup last year. But mostly, they have been around much longer than your club.

1874
Aston Villa have won the First division seven times, the F.A. Cup seven times and a European Championship in 1982. They have played at Villa Park since 1897 and were once considered the most successful side in England bar none.

Bolton Wanderers (as Christ Church FC until 1877) have won four F.A. Cups and were an early power of English football. While they seemed to have fallen from grace in the 1960’s, they returned to the league in 2000 and have have been a mid-table staple since. They were the first team to win the F.A. Cup at Wembley.

1875
Blackburn Rovers have won three top flight titles and six F.A. Cups. They still hold the longest undefeated F.A. Cup run at 24 and had Jack Walker to thank for their last title.

1877
Wolverhampton Wanderers (St. Luke’s until 1879) have won three First Division titles and four F.A. Cups.  They have played at Molineux since 1889 and the name Stan Cullis should be in every fan’s knowledge base.

1878
Everton (St. Domingo’s until 1879) has only been relegated twice since joining the league at the beginning. They have won nine First Division titles, five F.A. Cups and a Cup Winners Cup. Everton’s current financial crisis goes back to Heysel and the loss of brand recognition that the incident cost them due to the European ban.

West Bromich Albion have won one First Division title and have been runners up twice. They have won five F.A. Cups as well. The 1953-54 side that nearly won the double was once named the “Team of the Century” by the media. Their nickname of the Baggies was once a derogatory slur used against them.

Manchester United (Newton Heath until 1902) started life as an awful club. After a change of ownership and name in 1902, they have gone on to win 19 league titles, 11 F.A. Cups, a Cup Winners Cup and three European Cups. In fact, with each new owner United has grown bigger and won more, but United fans seem to long for the days of solid second division obscurity. Makes you almost hope they achieve it.

1879
Fulham lack honours but they are the oldest London club. Their current period in the top flight is by far their best. They were runners up in the 1975 F.A. Cup and 2010 Europa League. They were denied a piece of the legend of the 1966 World Cup due to a car accident that stymied the career of Johnny Haynes, who had captained the Three Lions 22 times.

Sunderland have won six First Division titles and two F.A. Cups. A massive financial scandal in 1957 involving over-payments of players led to them being relegated for the first time a year later.

1880
Manchester City (as St. Mark’s or Ardwick until 1894) were a founding member of the Second Division. They have won the First Division twice and the F.A. Cup five times. Like Arsenal’s WM and Tottenham’s Push and Run, they have a tactical plan to their name, called the Revie plan. And they won the Cup Winners Cup in 1970. But since they have so much money, we need to remind them that they were in the third tier of English football in 1999 :p

1882
Queens Park Rangers formed when two clubs known as St Jude’s and Christchurch Rangers merged. They were a lower tier club until 1967, when they won a League Cup, got promoted twice in succession and came second in the league in 1976. They lost a F.A. Cup final in 1981 and have been a yo-yo club since. They were also the richest club in the world for a short while.

The Modern Era of Football starts with the formation of Tottenham Hotspur (originally Hotspur FC) in 1882 on the Hackney Marshes. They are the only non-league side to win the F.A. Cup (in 1901) and have won it an additional seven times. They were the first side to win the double in 1961 to add to their title in 1951. Any mention of the number of titles since 1961 will not be authorized in the comment section 🙂 They have also won four League Cups and two UEFA Cups.

1886
Arsenal (originally Woolwich Arsenal) were formed in South London. They have taken up temporary residence in North London since 1913. They were the first southern club in the league and have been managed by two men who changed the English game for the good in Arsene Wenger and Herbert Chapman. They have won 13 league titles, ten F.A. Cups and a Cup Winners Cup.

1892
Newcastle United were formed from the merger of Newcastle East End and West End and have played at St. James Park since then. They have won four First Division titles, six F.A. Cups and the 1969 Fairs Cup. They have the dramas of Kevin Keegan and Mike Ashley to draw upon in the recent past and the near double in 1905 to draw upon in the distant.

Liverpool split off from Everton over a grounds issue with a board member. They were promoted in 1894 and have won 18 titles, seven F.A. Cups, three UEFA Cups, and five European Championships. The names Heysel and Hillsborough have given this club more drama than any club needs.

1902
Norwich City were founded in 1902 as well. Unfortunately it took them 70 years to get to the First Division. But still have two League Cups and have been in the top flight a number of times. So “Let’s Be ‘Avin Ya.”

1905
Chelsea have won four titles, six F.A. Cups, four League Cups and a Cup Winners Cup. They have a strong link to the hooliganism era and were robbed of entry to the first European Championship by the league.

The last two are the two with the least history and honours, but we must respect that the work done to make these clubs has been done in staunchly rugby towns.

1912
Before this year, Swansea City have played two seasons in the top flight. They hold the record for the fastest rise from the Fourth Division to the First jointly with Wimbledon. They both did it in four years but the Swans did it first. Their reserve team has won the Welsh league 12 times. The Gaffer told me that they are the only team Pele feared, but I think that might be a lie.

1932
Wigan Athletic were the fourth attempt to raise a club in Wigan. They didn’t make the league until 1978 but in 1995 Dave Whelan took over and they made it to the First Division in 2005 and lost to United in the League Cup final in 2006. They also have two Johnson Paint trophies.

So as you can plainly see, no team is small. No team lacks history or drama or even honours. There are bigger clubs and smaller clubs, but that is always relative to the era. So let’s try to respect all other clubs rather than using derogatory terms based on their attendance, their traveling support, their last trophy or their current financial malaise. And remember, the lower divisions are littered with great teams such as West Ham, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and Derby County to name but a few. Your team could end up there with a bad season, and then you might be called small too.

It is quite easy to have a go at Blackburn manager Steve Kean, but it doesn’t matter if you replace him because there is a lack of cohesion to the squad.

Why?

It has been suggested the Venky’s don’t have as much money as was once suggested. Indeed, the Venky’s holding company in India has lost half of it’s value over the last year, dropping from a high of 985R last October to 410R as of yesterday. It has also been rumored that most of the money made on the Jones’ deal was needed to service their debt on the club and thus promises of a £50 million war chest were never realized. But they did spend: £17.5 million on Simon Vukcevic, Scott Dann, Yakubu, David Goodwillie, Radosav Petrovic and Jordan Slew. They also spend £8 million on Mauro Formica and Ruben Rochina in January. And they did openly chase the legendary Raul of Schalke 04 for much of the summer. While nearly £25 million spent on players doesn’t match the number the Venky’s threw around to the press, suggestions that they are putting nothing into the club and leeching it for publicity seem to be false. But broken promises are a worry for Blackburn supporters.

There has also been much has been made of their association with agent Jerome Anderson of Kentaro, who advised them on their purchase of the club. There have been suggestions that he has been behind all of their transfers. This was claimed after Sam Allardyce left and this was once again suggested when the Agent’s son was signed from Aberdeen last April. He was instrumental in getting Rochina, but there seems to be little proof that he is calling the shots. Formica and Dann were highly sought by manager Steve Kean. And it should be noted that none of the six players bought this summer are clients of Kentaro or Jerome Anderson. So conspiracy theories that he is using the club to line his pockets are not very solid. It is known that he is a club supporter, so there might be a more innocent purpose behind his involvement with the club; however, it is understandable why the Blackburn faithful remain weary of this relationship with the man behind the John Obi-Mikel fiasco.

But whether true or not, these worries for Blackburn fans don’t provide an answer to what is happening on the pitch. That is much simpler and goes back to their summer.

Looking at the seven players brought in during the summer, whoever was behind them, whether Keane or Kentaro or the Venky’s, has shown themselves to be shrewd and intelligent in the market. Yes losing Phil Jones was big, but they replaced him with the quite capable Scott Dann, who was in high demand. Emerton was an important player, but was aging. Their two Balkan midfielders, Petrovic and Vukcevic, look like potential gems and should make up for the loss of the Australian on the pitch. But Emerton brought leadership that the team desperately needed too, so their ability to hold onto Christopher Samba was very important. In fact, keeping him might have been the most important move of the summer. And the eventual return on captain Ryan Nelson will be a boost to their on-field presence. Their only other big loss was Kalinic, but he was a squad player, and they have brought in three forwards to boost their front line, but they did so for less than they sold Kalinic. That’s a good summer, but it’s top-heavy with attackers. And that’s the problem.

They bought talent but ignored roles, especially in the midfield. Another way to put it is they have good pieces but not a good unit.

They have plenty in attack, but little in protection. This is where the lack of cohesion seems to lie. This can be seen in the different formations deployed by Kean in the first four matches. He has tried a 4-4-2, a 4-5-1 and a 4-2-3-1. He has tried to play Hoilett both centrally and wide and he has played around with Goodwillie as a lone forward and with a partner.

But this is the wrong area to fix. He needs to fix his central midfield pairing.

With their dearth of attacking midfield talent, they seem build to play a 4-2-3-1. If they use Goodwillie or Roberts, then they will need to move one of their attackers into a false 10 role to play the linking role for these two. With Yakubu, they have no such limitations. But this system relies on a solid pair in the double pivot, and for more than one reason.

Their fullbacks are old, but more importantly they are exposed as they don’t have wingers that track back to help them. Part of that has been the focus on buying attackers, with only Dann and Petrovic being defense minded players. A talented squad can be rendered useless if even one piece is missing. And they are missing a massive one. They seem to be heavy on false 9/10’s and wing players (Rochina, Formica, Hoilette, Pederson, Vukcevic) but they lack a reliable defensive midfielder, deploying the more box-to-box N’Zonzi with the attack-minded David Dunn against Fulham. If Petrovic can be incorporated into the team, they can pair him with N’Zonzi as a protective pair in front of the back four, who can track wide, when necessary to help Salgado and Givet. Jason Lowe looks like another potential CM who can be used to solidify the midfield. What all three have in common is that they are young and can run, which is important for the tactical needs of this side. When Nelson comes back, they could even think about using Olsson or Samba in a holding role.

Shoring up their central pairing to provide protection, is only one part of the fix if this area is addressed correctly. They need to release their attacking options. Goodwillie’s movement has been very positive so far and all of their midfield attackers have had moments that make you think there is potential at Blackburn for some fun games. But this is where the double pivot is once again needed to help realize this potential. Right now they are relying too heavily on Robinson to hoof the ball, but they lack a target for him. New options need to be found. If they can use N’Zonzi or Howe to link the defense to these attackers they would be much more fluid. If they had a DM to push back and allow Samba to carry the ball out, which is a strength of his, then there is another potential way of linking play. Or if they can use one of the CM’s to push back and release the fullbacks, they have another option (although with the age of Salgado and Givet this isn’t as good as the other two options).

But in the long run, it all comes down to getting their CM pairing right. They didn’t address this key area enough in the summer, but there are options. Whether it is handing Lowe the reigns or getting Petrovic EPL-ready or getting Nelson healthy so they can use one of their solid ball-playing defender in the midfield, if they can fix this crucial area, Blackburn’s season can be turned around. Kean isn’t the problem. He seems to recognize the issue and has been tinkering to find an answer. The Venky’s can replace him, but the new boss would need to fix this just the same. If anyone can do this, Blackburn might not be the relegation fodder that is commonly thought.

I went to the website Transfer League to look at Arsene Wenger’s recent transfers. I was looking for a pattern for this oft-cited project. But you can’t find significant patterns on just dates and prices. And overall, it’s not that important. Yes, Wenger has been very effective and prosperous by spending a mere 11 million net in his 15 years at Arsenal (and that’s without amortization). But that is not the narrative I was looking for.

It took birth dates and age at purchase to provide the patterns I was seeking, and then I needed to expand it to his full time at Arsenal. If you start to look at Wenger’s purchasing history, there is a very different story to the one we hear about his genius at purchasing youth. It turns out that he is far from a genius and is rather pedestrian at scouting teenagers. But once a player hits 20, Wenger becomes the best assessor of talent on the planet. Unlike a Ferguson, Schaaf and Moyes (contemporaries by duration) who all buy duds on occasion of all ages, Wenger rarely buys a dud with players aged 20-26.

Going through the list of his nearly 100 players bought during the course of his tenure, his best purchases have been in the 20-23 range, rather than teenagers. His record is poor for U21’s and U17’s. After age 26, Wenger has almost no concern with players other than goalkeepers and his few buys have rarely produced quality. Comparing this history with the past window, he took too many chances: two 19 year old kids, an 18 year old, 3 players over 27, two that are 26 and one player that is guaranteed to be a success in Gervinho. More on that statement in a moment. One guarantee and eight purchases in areas where historically he hasn’t been strong. That could be a very bad portent to Arsenal’s season. But not their supporters who demanded this. But patterns are often overlooked.

For this exercise, I have broke down his purchases into U17’s, U21’s, U23’s and then added 26 as further line of demarcation.

Arsenal U17’s

Let’s start with the kids. First the Academy. Now Arsenal use a very liberal interpretation of graduating from their academy. But it’s just PR. Cesc Fabregas was a product of La Mesia, not Arsenal. The academy has actually produced less talent for the senior side than is sold to the public. Most of their graduates are transfers from other academies, such as Bendtner or Djourou. But that doesn’t mean the system doesn’t produce. Since Wenger took over, Ashley Cole, Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs, Emmanuel Frimpong and Wojciech Szczęsny are the main graduates to help the first team. That’s not bad for a team of Arsenal’s size (massive sides tend to produce less players for their first team). It dwarfs London neighbors Tottenham and Chelsea. And many graduates have went on to contribute to other clubs, such as David Bentley and Fabrice Muamba. Overall, not on the level of Barcelona or even Manchester City pre-Mansour, but nothing to be ashamed of and nothing that needs padding.

But there is the issue of the U17’s that were bought and then used as academy graduates. Looking at Wenger’s record with U17 purchases, he has a fairly poor record. But, to his credit, he has also shown restraint. Understanding that they aren’t physically developed, Wenger has only signed 14 players in his time at such a young age, relying more heavily on the academy as mentioned above. Obviously we focus on Cesc Fabregas, Aaron Ramsey and Theo Walcott; however, the other 11 have been a mixed bag. Obviously Galli can’t be judged due to his untimely death. But Canoville, Traore, Merida, Quincy, Vela and Barazite never lived up to their potential. Djourou and Jermaine Pennant are decent players, but not great and Ebecillo and Freeman are still being evaluated. So three out of 14 isn’t as good as one would be led to believe.

Arsenal U19’s

If we look at the U19’s, those signed between the 17th and 19th birthdays, we would expect him to shine. They are closer to adult development and so many greats get started at this age. And we have been constantly reminded of Wenger’s genius at spotting young talent. The truth is that Wenger has had an even worse record here, as he has had just three good signings in this age bracket, but he brought through many more players than the U17’s. Nicolas Anelka, Gael Clichy and Song are the best of this bunch, which actually doesn’t sound very impressive. It also includes Matthew Upson, Guy Demel, Boa Morte, Diaby, Senderos and Bendtner, who are all average footballers. None made the team better nor Wenger much money. The rest, other than Miyachi and Galindo, who are still in evaluation, are a list of people few have ever heard of, except Francis Jeffers, who is best known for his failure. There are 11 players on that list who are nobodies. So here, three out of 22 is rather dire.

Arsenal U21-23’s

But that’s where it ends. Because once a player hits the 20-23 range, Wenger is amazing at getting value and talent in the market. While he has had some failures, like Bischoff or Daniilevicius, they are rare. He has had maybe six bad signings in his 15 years (not including the current campaign). Along with the two mentioned, there is Tavlardis, Wright, Diawara and Mendez. He signed Lassana Diarra, who is terrific, but left soon after joining because of another person in this age range: Matthieu Flamini. Eduardo and Reyes are very good players, but didn’t fulfill their potential in North London due to circumstances (the horrific injury to the Croatian and the home sickness of the Spaniard). Christopher Wreh was a serviceable player and Fabianski may still come good as a keeper. These are the neutral buys and they are fairly impressive. So let’s look at the list of good (and calling it good is slightly offensive as it is top-heavy with world class players) signings in this age range.

Vermaelen, Nasri, Adebayor, Flamini, van Persie, Toure, Edu, Henry, Kanu*, Lauren, Ljungberg, Viera and Overmars. Wow! Notice how many of the invincibles are in that list. It includes five of the starting XI and two important squad players. Here, Wenger can rest on his laurels if he wishes. His record is that impeccable. And for the count that is 16 out of 24.

Arsenal U26’s

But the 24-26 range produced a plethora of good players too. This age range brought in Petit, Grimandi, Koscielny, Sol Campbell, Gilberto Silva, Eboue, Rosicky, Hleb, Sagna, Pires and Wiltord. The only failure in this range is Stepanovs. Chamakh could join him and Manuel Almunia probably will. Silvinho and van Brockhorst were short lived, so are hard to judge. The rest are all outstanding players. Ten out of 15 is superb.

Arsenal, Over 26’s

After this, Wenger loses his touch or more likely, his interest. After 27, he has mostly poor returns. Malz and Sjaaban were forgettable. Cygan was average. Suker was a mistake. Squillaci shouldn’t start. And Arshavin has been a one game wonder. There have been a few backup goalkeepers and some cover defenders. But after age 26, Wenger has not bought often and of them only two have been great players: Gallas and Lehmann, He has also bought two useful squad players: Garde and Luzhny, but both were in the 90’s. One wouldn’t mistake him for Harry Redknapp down the street, who can find value in age, but little in the important 20-23 area.

So what does that tell us about this year’s crop of last minute signings? They might be mistakes. Arteta, Benayoun and Santos are in the age range where Wenger is untested to be kind – or not very good to blunt: 27 to 30. Park Chu-Young and Per Mertesacker are 26, the outer edge of his expertise. He usually does well in that area, but having watched Mertesacker a lot, this might well be a massive mistake. He is very slow in the turn. He reads the game well as it comes at him, but poorly when it goes away from him; thus, he tends to get turned in transition too easily. Teams hitting on the counter would do well to focus on him. Gervinho is almost guaranteed to be great. Carl Jenkinson looks like a magnificent find but like Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joel Campbell, only time will tell. The issue here is that he bought too many players outside of his comfort zone. Three young kids and 3 players over 26 is unheard of for Wenger.He only bought one player in that guaranteed 20-23 range. And one of his 26 year-olds turns 27 very soon, which means there’s as much chance of him being a flop as a success.

In the long run, watching Frimpong, who I think is a revelation, and Conor Henderson, and considering the existence of Song, Wilshere and Ramsey in the squad, plus a potentially healthy Rosicky, it might have been a better choice to stick with the academy than buy two injury prone players in Benayoun or Arteta. Although both Arsenal and Juan Mata may regret that failed deal. At his age and skill level, he’s guaranteed greatness. Links to Cedric Mongongu, Jan Vertonghen or Sedar Tasci would have been better to focus on than Santos and Mertesacker.

An unlucky own-goal and an admittedly horrible bad game led to pressure by supporters and possibly the board that could do more to harm than good this season. In what seems to be panic, Wenger went shopping in a store he doesn’t like. It might make this the worst window in Wenger’s almost unblemished record (08-09 and 97-98 being said blemishes). In the long run, it is not usually good to force a visionary to change tack and it seems somebody at Arsenal has.

There has been a lot made about the lack of transfer activity during the past three windows for Tottenham.  During two of them, they had the draw of the Champions League to lure in players, yet still didn’t pull the trigger on many deals.

It’s easy to forget, but the mood within the corps of Tottenham supporters last year was just as sullen as this year, until the last second signing of Rafael van der Vaart  Other than the Dutchman, last summer only saw the addition of Sandro and William Gallas.

Come January, Spurs are the hit of Europe and within striking distance of third and even possibly second place.  So they needed a forward to make up for the lack of goals from the front.   While stories abounded of Daniel Levy carrying a wheelbarrow of money around Spain begging for teams to part with anybody, it never really happened.  And it never was really true.  Generated by twitter, that story belays the fact that other than a few queries at the last moment, the club didn’t pursue forwards as much as commonly accepted.

And now we see the end of another silly season and Tottenham bought only Parker and loaned Adebayor, but also sold nearly £30 million worth of players.

Spurs supporters are livid with the current state of affairs.  Levy gets blamed the most and is envisioned to be sitting in a pool of money writing sonnets about his hatred of the club he owns.  Some claim he is holding back money for a new manager.  Harry looks perpetually grumpy because he is actually forced to abide by economics for the first time in his career.  Using the media, he gets fans on his side and even more of them join in condemning the diminutive chairman.

Are they right?  The club have spent just £25 million in transfer fees in the past three windows and have London prices for home matches, EPL television revenue and a huge payoff from last year’s enjoyable run in the Champions League.   Where is all of that money?

Well, it’s very simple and it’s the secret that nobody wants to discuss.  Harry Redknapp can’t sell players.  And when he does, it’s usually at a loss.

The fact of the matter is that Tottenham, despite the misconception that they are big spenders in the market, are run very reasonably.  A wage structure that keeps them below 50% of revenues means they cannot afford anybody over £80,000 a week.   Before the owners got smart, West Ham, Aston Villa and Newcastle easily outspent Tottenham on wages.  And as for transfers, despite the numbers that show Tottenham are the 4^th highest spenders since the EPL started, during the Levy era,  the club’s net spending has always been reasonable.  Yes the team has spent a lot of money, but they have always offset at least 60% of that with sales. Between 2003-2011, Tottenham spent £300 million on transfers, but they sold £190 million.  This is roughly £14 million per year.  That meets expectations for a club of their size in this league.

So how have things changed since Harry took over?  The sales dried up.  Take away last night’s £21 million bonanza for Hutton, Crouch and Palacios; and Harry, in the five windows he’s been in charge had sold only £34.5 million in players (most of that was the £18 million for Bent and Zokora).  How much had he spent?  Well going into yesterday, the number was a staggering £99 million.  He had net spent £65 million.  But that’s not the entire story.

Harry started his sells well enough, by making a profit on £8.6 million Didier Zokora (£1.4 million profit).  After that, he lost money on every sale at the club until Peter Crouch made him £500k late last night.   Having negated the Robbie Keane deal, he bought him back for £12 million and sold him on for £2.5 million – losing the club nearly £10 million.  He bought and sold Pascal Chimbonda within six months and lost a million doing so.  He couldn’t find takers for Ricardo Rocha or Gilberto so they left on free.  Darren Bent was bought for £16 million and sold for £10* million based on comments by Harry to the press comparing the striker to his wife.  During his short time at the club, his profit/loss on players he moved out of the club is a staggering £30 million in loses.  That’s right! He has lost £30 million on players.  Granted Damien Comolli deserves credit for some of that, but he was able to sell his own trash before the Harry era.

*A sell on clause  eventually saw all money recouped by the club.  Harry gets full credit on all transfers, but sell-on clauses are done by John Alexander, club secretary, and Daniel Levy.

Last night, Tottenham made £21 million on three players; however, that equated to a loss of £8.5 million.   Hutton and Palacios had been bought for £20 million but were sold for £11 million.

Players sometimes lose money, but for Tottenham that was rare before Harry.  They made money on Tommy  Forecast and Calum Davenport.  Do you know who they are?  I don’t.   That’s not to mention the large profits on Carrick, Berbatov and Keane (pre-Harry).

So Harry came in and spent a large sum of money.  Subsequently he has done little to replenish the coffers.  And when he has sold, it has been at a loss all but twice.

This is why Spurs have become one of the quietest teams in the EPL during the silly season.  With the £21 million just added, despite the loss, they are starting to get closer to normalcy and by January, we should see some activity.  There is a roster spot with Leandro’s name written all over it.

But in the meantime, Levy and Harry, hamstrung by a lack of sales used the loan market and free transfers to make the team better.  The story nobody talks about is how well they have done by getting Adebayor, Gallas. Friedel, Ceballos and Falque for NO  money.   That’s a great defender, a proven Prem forward, one of the best goalkeepers of the past 10 years and two La Mesia products for less that a cup of joe. That’s brilliant!

Note: I used http://www.topspurs.com/thfc-transfers.htm for my main source for numbers.  I won’t claim they are perfect, but they are close.  For example, there is no data on Coulibaly, but he cost £2 million.

Photo by The Gaffer

I sat on my couch soon after the United States’ loss to Ghana in the World Cup, wondering what to do next. Despite knowing little to nothing about football, I had devoted myself completely to the team’s emotional World Cup run, and I couldn’t just wait for Brazil in four years. So I opened up my laptop and pulled up the 2009-10 Premier League table, intent on finding a team. Little did I know that this near-random picking of a name would have a large impact on the next nine months of my life.

I wanted to avoid the “Big Three” because that would make me a bandwagoner; Manchester City seemed too much like the New York Yankees so they were out. However, I at least wanted a team that would be on TV occasionally and fight for a Champions League spot, so my choices came down to Liverpool, Everton, and Tottenham. From there I eliminated Liverpool (too strange a situation) and was left with Everton and Tottenham. Not knowing anyone outside World Cup players, I chose Everton due to having more people I knew and liked, such as Tim Howard, Yakubu, Tim Cahill, and, ironically, Steven Pienaar.

From there my focus turned to learning as much as I could about the club and its players. After reading countless articles about the team, I went into the opener at Blackburn confident in our chances to challenge for the Champions League. As August turned to September without a league win, these hopes started to be revised to Europa League qualification. But a strange thing happened as I continued to watch every minute of these disappointing results: I became extremely loyal to Everton. Their pain was my pain, but their joy was also mine. I was practically delirious at the comeback draw against Man United and the dominating 2-0 win over Liverpool. Despite not knowing anyone from either the red or blue side of Liverpool, I hate Liverpool with a passion and to take four points from them has been one of the highlights of the season.

I have even become familiar with much of Everton’s history. Despite the fact that I had not even been born, much less become an Everton supporter, I’m somewhat annoyed that England’s European ban denied Everton’s chance at the European Cup title. Multiple viewings of Everton’s penalty kicks win over Man United at Wembley (2008-09 FA Cup semifinal) gave me even more of an appreciation of the team’s epic win over Chelsea.

Looking back at my pick of a Premier League team in July, logic states that I made a poor decision. Tottenham plays an electric style of football with likable players and a thrilling run in Europe. They have more money, a bigger and newer stadium, and more points in the table than Everton. A Tottenham fan would not have had to watch the atrocity that was the FA Cup match between Everton versus Reading, which is a plus unto itself.

But I have no regrets as I can’t imagine rooting for anyone but Everton. Tottenham doesn’t have the grit of a Tim Cahill or the brilliance of a David Moyes (yes, he still has my full support.). They don’t have the undying support of fans who always sing their support in the old but beautiful Goodison Park. They don’t have the perfect atmosphere that is Arteta and Howard and Coleman walking out to Z Cars on a mid afternoon in Merseyside. Tottenham are simply not my team.

In the era of the Internet, home loyalties are not as important. As a seventeen year old in Florida, I am a diehard supporter of my hometown Buccaneers American football team, but I am not limited by my town. If I want to pick an English football team, I can pick whoever I want and have their games available to me. Money and school have prevented me from going to see the Toffees in action, but this does not make me less of a supporter when I have been able to watch nearly every match. We are in an era where you can pick your team rather than the other way around, and if that offers times like I have had with Everton, it is certainly a good thing.

The thing that will stir it up more than anything is a massive purchase. Due to the particularities of January and the desperation of clubs, there tend to be more ridiculous purchases than during the summer. This winter we have seen Edin Dzeko go to Manchester
City for €32 million, followed by Darren Bent moving from Sunderland to Aston Villa for a suggested £24 million.

And what do Wolfsburg and Sunderland have in common because of these transfers? They command a large amount of paper space, forum chat, agent talk and tweets discussing who they will buy next. After all, they both have a lot of money just burning a hole in their pocket. They have to spend it, right?

Wolfsburg have been linked to Eljero Elia, Mark van Bommel, Patrick Helmes, Amauri, Paul Konchesky, Milan Baros, Mirko Vucinic, Papiss Demba Cisse, Mario Gomez and Mark Arnautovic since selling Dzeko. That’s a lot of players. Considering how little movement there has been in the Bundesliga this January, possibility takes the place of happenings.

Wolfsburg don’t need most of these players. If they switch their tactics, they only need one or two players at most. If they stick to the 4-4-2 they only need a replacement for Dzeko at best. But any player that they possibly could forr, at this point, would cost them way more than they are worth, because every selling team would know they have so much cash on hand. It’s in their best interest to wait until the summer when they are removed from the giant price they were able to obtain for Dzeko. And even if they do decide to test the waters, are they going to stick with McClaren or make a managerial change. If they do, they could end up wasting a purchase. Maybe the new guy loves Ziani, who looks on the outs with McClaren, but could be a contributor for a new trainer.

Do they have enough to survive? Yes. Do they have enough to get into the top six? No. But even adding Messi might not give them the ability to jump 9 spots and catch up 10 points. They are probably better waiting it out, hoping that Diego start to find form and put some trust in the kids. There is too much talent not to start climbing the table. But they do need to break this streak of 7 straight draws.

Here are seven musings on the entertaining match.

• Thomas Kraft looked great in goal. It looks like van Gaal’s decision to use the young keeper is the right one. Although it could be his undoing. The kid looked fantastic in goal and seemed to be more than just a shot-stopper. Shot-stoppers are a dime a dozen in football. The ability to organize a defense and make proper decisions is what separates average from great. Kraft made all the right decisions. The problem is that the front-office wants Schalke’s Manuel Neuer, and now that might not be such a good idea. I doubt having a coach mess up your summer plans will go down well with the egos at Bayern.
  

• Some would argue that seeing Messi or Ronaldo with the ball is the greatest image in the game. For me, it’s seeing Marc van Bommel being fouled. Don’t get me wrong, I have no issues with Bayern Munich and don’t wish to see any of their other players treated roughly. But van Bommel represents everything wrong with football: fouling, diving, cheating, arguing. The sooner Milan buys him, the better the league will be. But until he goes, thanks Josue!
  

• This might be more of a question than a statement. During the match, Wolfsburg were getting to the by-line often. The passes made from this position were always excellent in my opinion. They were deeper than the defenders and were placed for a trailing player to blast into the net. But nobody was ever there. It would seem to me that this should have been Diego’s role. However, having taken a year off from the league, I can’t say if this was perhaps a space that Dzeko might have often inhabited. Is that true? Or was it just bad luck? Seems to be something McClaren might want to focus on as there was ample opportunity.
  

• Robben can’t do it all. While the possession stats show that Bayern Munich had more of the ball, watching the game didn’t give you that impression. It seemed that the only time Bayern were really eating up possession or pitch was when Robben had the ball. He was the only one for Bayern that was really having a go at the Wolfsburg defense. Granted they lost Ribery early, but there is still enough talent that they should have more in attack. If your only link between the rest of the outfield and the forwards in one player then you are obviously easy to defend. And that seems to be something that van Gaal must focus on.
  

• Dzeko’s departure may well pay dividends. McClaren wants a 4-3-3. Dzeko demanded a 4-4-2. A manager that has to change his system to accommodate one player, does no club a favor. With the forward’s departure, they seemed to start the process of converting their tactical shape. While they lack the personnel to play the preferred system, and plan to use the proceeds from Dzeko’s sale to get the right players, for now they seem to be working with a 4-2-3-1, using Cicero and Josue as a double six behind Dejegah, Mandzukic and Diego. If they can get Elia, as has been rumored, then they can have three forwards. Possibly replacing Cicero with a more box-to-box midfielder might help as well.
  

• There is nothing worst that a referee that loses the plot during a match. Manuel Gräfe did just that. He allowed the players to boss him. But worse was the way he allowed the questionable offside that disallowed a Diego goal to influence the penalty he awarded when Dejegah dove. It could be argued both ways that the goal that went through Kraft’s hands should or should not have been allowed. So if there is a case, there is not need for a make-up call to right a wrong. Luckily Kraft saved the penalty to preserve the match’s integrity.
  

• With Bayern drawing and Dortmund taking out their other closes competitor, Bayer, over the weekend, it’s over. Or is it? It’s a big lead, but two years ago Hoffenheim returned from the break as Herbstmeiser and won their first match, 2-0 over Energie Cottbus (I miss them). Yet, they lost the league to a red-hot Wolfsburg that year. They didn’t even end up in Europe. While Dortmund are a stronger side than that Hoffenheim squad, everyone (including myself) should realize that there is a lot of time left in the most competitive league in Europe. But for Uli Hesse’s sake, I hope they hold on 🙂
  

• If you want to beat the team with the stingiest defense on the counter, you can’t sit back and allow the team with the most proficient attack to come at you all day. Bayer came out and played like Turkmenistan taking on Brazil at the World Cup. They tried to play everyone behind the ball and hit on the counter, but they are too talented for such a small-minded tactic and they were burned by sheer ignorance of it. When they finally started to play after the Mourinho-esque three subs by Jupp Heynckes, they began to bother Dortmund. Had they done so from the beginning, they may have avoided the embarrassment.
• There is only one thing to like about Nuri Sahin’s play: EVERYTHING. After two or three missed passes at one point in the first half, I thought he has was having a bad match. The fact that this went through my head after two or three missed passes speaks volume to the way he controls the midfield. Between his positioning sense and his positional play, he has to be the best midfielder in the Bundesliga.
• Antonia da Silva’s substitution for Sven Bender was the greatest substitution ever made! Well it was due to an injury, but there may be something to it. da Silva set back and protected the backline, making his presence felt early and often. This allowed the rest of the midfield to move up in attack. During the first 15 minutes of the second half, where Dortmund scored their goals, Grosskreutz was playing as a forward and Sahin played so much higher on the pitch he was effectively a #10. For a searing stretch, Dortmund were playing 4-1-5.
• Manuel Freidrich has had better days. It would be hard to say he’s had many that were worse. On the first goal, he allowed the ball to get by him despite using his arms to control it. He lost Grosskruetz on the second off a flick-on by Lewandowski, as well. And as the elder statesman of that backline, he allowed their shape to break way too easily once they conceded the first.
• Shinji? Barrios? Zidane? Who are they? Meet Dortmund’s best forward: Robert Lewandowski. This was only his second start this year and he did so as a lone forward, the mythic English #9, battering the ball and waiting for every cross. And he was the MOM. His movement was pristine. Go back and watch the final goal and see where he is to receive the ball. If Groetze hadn’t nutmegged Adler, Lewandowski would have every right to have punched him in the sack. He set up the second with an amazing flick on. And his long distance bombs in the first half, not only rattled Adler, but pulled Bayer out of a deep line, allowing them to take advantage of his efforts in the second half.
• Now that Edin Dzeko is in England, can we finally start talking about Kiessling being the best linking forward in the league. He might have been before Dzeko left. Not only did he score, but was the one bright spot during an woeful Leverkusen performance.
• Dortmund is going to win the title. And deservedly so.
  

How big is next week? If Wolfsburg and Werder were to get home wins and Hamburg and away draw it would bring the Bundesliga to 61.88 and a few wins/draws away from overtaking Serie A.

League	2004–05	2005–06	2006–07	2007–08	2008–09	2009-10	Coeff.
Italy	14.00	15.36	11.93	10.25	11.38	13.57	62.91 -> 62.49
Germany	10.57	10.44	9.50	13.50	12.69	14.91	56.70 -> 61.04

So perhaps this is where we should be.

Two giants of German football locking horns for the title.

Bayern Munich have won 5 of the last 9 championships. Magath has won 3 of the last 5, is responsible for 2 of Bayern’s 5 and even led Stuttgart to 2nd in the past decade. Bayern win because the are supposed to win. Magath sides win because they are the best conditioned. One is the biggest club in Germany and the fourth biggest club in the world. The other is probably the best manager in the world outside of Alex Ferguson and Fabio Capello. So will Magath win his 3rd championship with 3 teams? Or will the Bavarian giants do what they so often do?

A weekend of upsets led us to this titillating finish, with Schalke now just two points behind Bayern in second. With Bayer Leverkusen losing to Nuremburg 2-3 to record their first lossof the campaign, the reality of that record being predicated on too many draws is hitting them squarely now. While any non-partisan might have help hope for the Werkself to throw off the shackles of their bridesmaid mentality to win their first title, the gravity of history seems to have sunk the young squad. Even trainer Juup Heynckes has hinted at such today.

Meanwhile, Bayern forgot that Cologne are absolutely pants just like Lukas Podolski forgot that he is a farce. Most surprisingly, a crowd that so easily turns on its team decided to play 12th man for the first time in ages. The result was possibly the biggest surprise of the 2nd half of the season as Cologne pulled themselves six points clear of the drop with a 1-1 draw.

It could be that the deciding factor in this year’s title could be the Champions League as Van Gaal will be forced to tinker with the superior squad, as he did Saturday in anticipation of their mid-week trip to Florence, as long as they last in Europe.

Despite the talk being about Magath, we should start noticing that a very good collection of players (many still remain from the 2007 runner-up season) has started to play like a team rather than individuals. Despite losing captain Bordon, they went to Frankfurt and soundly beat the surprise team of the campaign 4-1, using four different goal scorers. For once the air of inevitability with regards to Schalke isn’t about what the won’t do but what they can do. People are starting to believe that Schalke can win this title, and as Bayern Munich can attest, the most important factor in any campaign can often be how you and your opponents regard you. The truth is that many games are won before the ball is kicked and Schalke via Magath will start to win games solely on the mystique of their manager.

Perhaps it all comes down to Saturday the 3rd of April when Bayern travel to Gelsenkirchen to face the Royal Blues. And maybe more for Bayern than Schalke, because Schalke will only continue to get stronger. They’re due for a winning streak. Bayern seem to be tailing off of one. And with a decent chance in Europe, Bayern have more on their plates than the Royal Blues. Anything less than a win out west could be costly for Bayern.

So sit back and enjoy. Typically the best seasons happen when Bayern are weak, but we might get a title run worthy of 2007 Stuttgart or 2009 Wolfsburg with Bayern being very strong.

Deloitte’s new Money League is up and Germany have added a club to the top 20.

Top 20 + Revenue
1. Real Madrid €401.4m (1st last year)
2. Barcelona €365.9m (3rd)
3. Man Utd €327.0m (2nd)
4. Bayern Munich €289.5m (4th @ €295.3m)
5. Arsenal €263.0m (6th)
6. Chelsea €242.3m (5th)
7. Liverpool €217.0m (7th)
8. Juventus €203.2m (11th)
9. Internazionale €196.5m (10th)
10. AC Milan €196.5m (8th)
11. Hamburg €146.4m (15th @ €127.9m)
12. Roma €146.4m (9th)
13. Lyon €139.6m (12th)
14. Marseille €133.2m (16th)
15. Tottenham Hotspur €132.7m (14th)
16. Schalke 04 €124.5m (13th @ €148.4m)
17. Werder Bremen €114.7m (unranked)
18. Borussia Dortmund €103.5m (unranked)
19. Man City €102.2m (20th)
20. Newcastle United €101.0m (17th)

Stuttgart dropped out, but Werder Bremen replaced them on the strength of their UEFA Cup final.

Meanwhile Dortmund seems to have put all of their financial woes behind them and joined the top 20. For one of Germany’s biggest clubs, it seems unnatural that they were absent for so long.

So with five of the top 20 clubs, Germany takes over sole second having passed Italy. Meanwhile Bayern held strong at the fourth spot, but lost ground to the top 3. Whereas last year, they were right on Barcelona’s tail; Bayern held position but Barca moved to second and United dropped to third, although Bayern Munich lost revenue and fell behind 3rd place by an additional €22 million. Granted, it was to the two finalists from last year’s Champions League. However it does show how finishing well in the premier competition can effect a club’s bottom line.

The interesting aspect to this is that Germany are 2 behind England in total teams on the table. However Newcastle, who currently hold 20th, will drop out next year due to being in the second division of English football.

Meanwhile, Stuttgart, who dropped out, but are still hovering near the cutoff, have a strong Champions League this year to possibly propel them back into the mix next year, which could see Germany equal England at 6 each. However, Bordeaux or Olympiacos, both hefty clubs could see themselves in the top 20 with a good Champions League run. Valencia or Benfica, who have both been in the top 20 within the past four years might return with a run to the finals of the Europa League.

See last years rankings here.

Is this the year where the Bundesliga gains a fourth spot? It could well be. Below is a table of the current UEFA Coefficient compared to how it stands if the season were to end today. At the end of the season, 2004-2005 will be removed from the books. In that season, Italy had 2.5 more points than Germany. It was the year Milan lost to Liverpool in the finals of the Champions League. Italy had 5 full points on Germany the following year, followed by another 1.5 point lead in 06-07. Since then Germany has been trending higher the last two campaigns (07-08 being a bit of a mare for Italy and last year being boosted by the Bundesliga’s UEFA Cup success). It was enough to offset the disaster of 05-06. With the 2.5 from five years ago going off the books, it will be replaced by this years results.

At the moment, there is a 1 point lead for Germany. A 2.8 point lead is necessary. So with the two competitions getting to the end, what are the chances?

For the Bundesliga, Stuttgart are holding on by a thread with a return leg at the holders in 3 weeks. Werder, Hamburg and the Wolves are all through to the final 16 in the Europa.

For Italy, Juve are still in the Europa; meanwhile, Inter take a lead to Stamford Bridge. Milan are effectively out.

That leaves Bayern and Fiorentina, who face off in two weeks in Florence. Bayern must overcome the Viola’s away goal, which leaves them in a strong position, despite Tom Henning Øvrebø. Bayern need to draw at least. A loss of 3-2 which would see them through to the next round would allow Fiorentina to offset the bonus point from progressing with 2 points for a victory.

If Bayern can make it through, it will leave Germany with four clubs to accumulate points compared with a possible 2 for Italy, although we should all be pulling for Chelsea to be safe.

With .33 points for a win, .167 for a draw and another .167 for each round progression, the Bundesliga needs five more victories to get close to the 2.8 difference. But with Europa being in Hamburg this year, the incentive for 3 northern clubs to see the final could be all we need to get a fourth spot by 2011.

League	2004–05	2005–06	2006–07	2007–08	2008–09	2009-10	Coeff.
Italy	14.00	15.36	11.93	10.25	11.38	13.00	62.91 -> 61.91
Germany	10.57	10.44	9.50	13.50	12.69	14.08	56.70 -> 60.21

Jon Goulding (pronounced Gold-ing) is a Port Vale supporter living in Cheshire England. He was introduced to German football by his father-in-law, and fell in love with 1.FC Nürnberg. After attending a few games, Jon turned his mates onto the the delights of German football, beer and Bratwurst. And soon they form the British-based 1.FC Nürnberg fan club.

His new book, For Better or For Wurst is a compendium of his travels to Germany to watch his beloved 1FCN, including his first derby, the disastrous relegation campaign of 07-08 and the Cup in 07, as well as the formation of their supporters club. In total it covers 3 seasons and about 25 live matches as well as his constant travails to follow Der Club.

Here is an excerpt:

Berlin. 26th May, 2007

An empty stadium silently echoes with the events and legends of the past. Whether major or minor, global or local in scale, the ghosts of ‘those days’ creep into the imagination of the observer. The performances and performers, the spectators and the enormity of each occasion crackle through the static of the years as one desperately tries to imagine a long gone scene. Conversely, a full stadium fuses the past with the electricity, anticipation and excitement of the present.

To be standing in Berlin’s Olympiastadion would have been, as sports fans and tourists, a moment to reflect on the grand history of the place. Reflection on the famous ‘Nazi’ Olympics of 1936 and the four gold medal haul of Jesse Owens. And how about, albeit less significantly (unless you are French, or Italian for that matter), Zinedine Zidane’s World Cup Final head-butt on Marco Materazzi? Moments and people now etched into the stadium’s memories for eternity.

That the time for such reflection on the past was only fleeting was due to the magnitude of the present. Not on a global scale, maybe not even on a national scale and certainly without much interest beyond the borders of Germany. But in the Franconian and Schwaben areas of southern Germany, for the thousands of fans on the fan mile stretching westwards from Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate, and for the 74,400 fans in the old stadium itself, for that afternoon the significance and spectacle were difficult to surpass.

Three decades of living away from his native Germany and four decades in the footballing wilderness for his hometown team had somewhat hardened Herbert Schauer to the emotions of football. However, to be standing (for despite the provision of seats, that was how it was to be for most of the game) with fellow Franconians in this temple of sport was something of a spiritual experience. To be sharing this with his daughter and British supporters of ‘his’ team was a personal high after all of those years of support in exile and support in isolation. Thirty years of lone moments of despair only punctuated by the occasional, and all too often cruel, false dawn of impending success.

You can follow Jon at jongoulding.com and the supporters club at their Official Site.

While the Aughts have been full of speculation/proposal about the Old Firm joining the EPL, the 90’s was about the Old Firm joining what was dubbed as the Atlantic League. It was a joint proposal from the big clubs in the Netherlands, Scotland and Portugal. ESPN is reporting that there may be another attempt at this break away league, which would involve the aforementioned clubs along with Belgium and the Scandinavian clubs.

I’m all for tradition, but I like the idea of this league.

For one reason, historic clubs such as Ajax, Celtic, Rangers, Porto (Mourinho-era aside), Sporting, Benfica, PSV, Anderlecht and FC Copenhagen have no hope of competing in the Champions League any longer as they are financially dwarfed by the clubs in the big six leagues of Europe. These are massive clubs and don’t deserve to become also-rans because of the size of their country’s population.

For another Scandinavia, which once produced clubs that could cause an upset in Europe, have been reduced to two clubs in the Europa League. Norway and Sweden, which produce many talents for other clubs, haven’t had a team in the knock-out stages since the mid-90’s. Both confederations sit in the 20’s in the coefficient rankings. And Denmark hasn’t been much better, although they do typically have a team in the group stages.

If Michel Platini is about strengthening these leagues, then allowing smaller countries to consolidate to fight the money and populations of Italy, Spain, France, England, Russia and Germany is only fair. And with German clubs again complaining about the 50+1 rule, as was discussed here earlier, such a change would only help push the Netherlands, Scotland, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark, Norway and Sweden further adrift.

Finally, if a breakaway league can be formed for these countries, it could provide a blue-print for the Eastern European nations that find themselves in the same position.

And it’s not like we haven’t had this before. The old Yugoslavian league during the Communist era was essentially the same thing being proposed, and was competitive in Europe without the availability of foreign transfers.

If they could set up a league, perhaps even with two tiers, it could gain enough popularity to rival Russia or France, which are broadcast widely. They could have relegation and promotion with a two tier system. And for the second division, teams could drop back to their country’s league system if they finished in the bottom three. Say Hibs came in last in league 2, they could be replaced by Aberdeen, the winner of the SPL. This could work if it were just one league, too. The question would be, how many teams would be allowed into the Champions League. This new league might need to be given a fifth slot to account for the eight countries.

Think about this league:
Celtic
Rangers
Porto
Benfica
Sporting Lisbon
Rosenborg
Valerenga (included because I love them)
FC Copenhagen
Bronby
AIK
Gothenburg
Malmo
PSV
Ajax
Feyenoord
Anderlecht
Club Brugge
Standard Liege
HJK
MyPa

That would be a highly competitive league with historical clubs oozing out of it’s pores. It would take place in eight countries, two teams each for the 5 million nations and 3 each for the 10 million nations. The league would encompass a population of 67 million people, taking it past Italy, Spain, England and France. And other than travel to Portugal, would rarely compete with the travel involved in an Bayern-Hamburg match. Linguistically, it would entail Dutch, Danish, Norweigian, Swedish, Finnish, English, French and Portuguese. However, the Scandanavian countries can communicate as their languages are so similar, except for the pronunciation differences from Danish to Swedish. 25% of all Finns speak Swedish as well. Walloonia speaks Dutch. And to be perfectly honest all of the aforementioned nations, speak better English than the Scots 😉 So really we are talking about a league that could concentrate on English and Portuguese.

By the way, the Gaffer may soon be seeking an AtlanticLeagueTalk writer 🙂

*Population notes: Belgium 10.5 Netherlands 16.5 Portugal 10.7 Sweden 9.2 Denmark 5.5 Norway 4.7 Finland 5.5 Scotland 5

With Paulo Guerrero and Mladen Petric sustaining long term injuries, Hamburg are facing a forward crisis of epic proportion. The weight of a team that is tied on points for the league falls on the shoulders on young Swede Marcus Berg. No matter who Labbadia might sign, bring up from the reserves or shift, Berg is still the only proven striker the Dinosaurs have. He no longer gets to be vetted slowly through the Europa League. He’s now the first guy on the lineup card. He beats any player for any team to that lineup card. Bayern would rather not be without Ribery, but they can survive. Hamburg can’t do this without the Euro U21 golden boot winner. By virtue of these injuries, he’s the best signing by any club this year. How he adapts to being the main striker is going to make or break the Dinosaurs this campaign as they compete on two fronts.

Is he up to the task? I think he is. He’s already scored five goals between the Bundesliga and Europa League during limited time. He has a good nose for goal and knows how to move. What he lacks is a foil, so he may have to take a massive detour in career development to learn the art of holding the ball. In all fairness, if he embraces the challenge, this could be the best thing to ever happen for the kid.

So what can Labbadia do to offset the loss of his two main strikers? There are a few possibilities. Let’s look at them.

1. 4-5-1

   He can change tactics and play a five man midfield. This would be the best option if Berg was a back-to-goal forward. But he isn’t. It’s not that he hasn’t show an ability to interchange with other players, but so far he has done so within the box. A lone target man, need to be able to hold the ball outside the area and wait for the midfield to catch up with him. I don’t see this at Berg’s natural role. It’s not saying that he can’t do it, but even at the U21’s this past summer, it was Ola Toivonen or PSV who was the link man in their setup with Berg playing front-to-goal. It may be too much to ask for both a quick adaption along with the transition to a new league. The best hope here is that Labbadia can start to teach the young Swede how to hold up the ball.

2. 4-3-3

   How is this different than a 4-5-1, you ask? Well it’s obvious. You utilize two wide men like Elia and Torun to play as a forward line rather than holding them back to pack the midfield. If they provide good service, Berg is well suited to finishing and can play in the air. This would seem to be Labbadia’s best choice as he has the likes of Ze Roberto, Jarolim, Benjamin, Pitroipa, Trochowski and Castelan to form a solid unit behind the front line to protect the back four and also link play to the three man front line. A few of these guys can even play in this new 3 man forward corps.

3. Elia – Berg

   He can move Eljero Elia into a forward role, as has been suggested. It has been claimed that the young Dutchman play as an out-and-out forward. I don’t have access to the Dutch Eredivisie, so I’ve never seen Elia play the role. What I do know from watching him is that he is the last person a defense wants running at them with the ball. Moving him into the forward position would neutralize one of Hamburg’s opponents’ biggest fears.

4. Pitroipa – Berg

   He can play Jonothan Pitroipa as a link man. He’s more of an attacking midfielder, but unlike Elia, whose pace is too important to neutralize by pushing him off the wing, Pitroipa could slot in as a deep forward to link the midfield to Berg. This could be, if not the main answer, a solid option to keep opposing teams honest in their approach to any upcoming matches with HSV.

5. Raid HSV II

   There are four other kids that could join Berg in the forward line: Tunay Torun, Maximilian Beister, Tolgay Arslan and Andre Hahn. Torun we saw this past weekend, although he was a RW in the game. Arslan is another M/F. Hahn and Beister are both forwards, but are very young. Regardless of age, one or more of them are going to be needed as Berg can’t play every minute of every game henceforth.

6. Freebies
   Finally, there are talks of picking up Polish international Ebi Smolarek, whose contract wasn’t renewed by Racing Sandanter in the summer. Regardless of how much he can fit into the system, it seems absolutely necessary that they do this for depth and experience. Plus Ebi has played in the Bundesliga before at Dortmund and could also play as part of a 4-3-3 as he can play wide.

I was approached by a reader who wanted contact information for Uli Hesse-Litchtenberger. I have to apologize to that reader. I don’t feel comfortable either giving out such information or even asking the favor of the talent that has been kind enough to talk to me. I can only suggest that if you wish to contact them, you should try to access them via their papers. I have been very fortunate to be granted access to some really great writers and don’t want to do anything to upset the apple cart.

That being said, I was happy to pass the question along to Uli. He agreed that I could post the conversation to the blog, but he didn’t want it to be a piece, as he felt he would need to do more research. I hope you will find that as funny and awe-inspiring as I did when you read just how much Uli wrote on the subject, off the cuff. He really is amazing.

The subject is Schalke 04 and the financial crisis that they face.

Dear Uli,
I got a question from a reader who is worried about the future of Schalke. It’s an interesting question, as I don’t think a club can go bankrupt. But maybe I am wrong. If you have a moment could you read the poster’s original e-mail and explain if it is possible for a club to go bankrupt.

During research for an article last year, I though that there seemed to be safeguards against such an event. I do know a club can be sent to a lower league for bad finances like 1860 were in the 80’s, but bankruptcy seems unlikely.

Thanks in advance.

Sir – I just finished reading your interview with Herr Hesse-Lichtenberger, and it dawned on me that he may be able to answer a question for me. I’m trying to gather some insight on bankruptcy procedures for football clubs in Germany. I am an english speaker living in Germany with basic knowledge of the language, but I’ve been unable to find anything out about the processes and procedures that may surround Schalke 04 in the future.

Hi Chrstopher,

Well, that’s easy to answer … and yet very hard.

First, of course a club can go bankrupt. SC Jülich 1910, for instance, a club that won the German amateur championship three years running (1969-1971), went bankrupt in 1997.

Or let’s take clubs you’ll be familiar with. The legendary Bundesliga whipping boys SC Tasmania 1900 went bankrupt in 1973. And VfB Leipzig even went bankrupt twice! (The club survived the first insolvency, in 1999, because the creditors accepted the debt restructuring. The second insolvency, in 2004, killed VfB, because this time the creditors decided to dissolve the club.)

The problem – and this is what makes your question so hard to answer – is what happens when and if a club goes bankrupt. After all, the vast majority of our clubs are still public clubs, not privately owned businesses, which makes liability (in the legal sense of accountability) an issue. And even those clubs that seem to be businesses are, well, unusual businesses.

When we say Bayern Munich, for instance, what we actually mean is Bayern Munich Ltd, the professional football division. It is a business that is privately owned. But it is owned by Bayern Munich, the public parent club.

But to keep this as simple as possible under the circumstances, the answer should probably read something like this:

Yes, clubs can go bankrupt and it does happen from time to time, though there are sports where this happens more often than it does in football (ice hockey, for instance). But your reader mustn’t fret. Because what usually happens when clubs go bankrupt is this: they will be formed anew under a slightly different name. Which is why there is a club called SC Jülich 1910/97 (for: founded 1910, re-founded 1997) and another one called SV Tasmania Gropiusstadt 73.

So clubs are usually like Rocky. They always come back.

Cheers,
Uli

Dear Uli,

Thank you so much for your answer. As usual, your lack of details is glaring 😉

As a followup, what are the chances that Schalke could go bankrupt or could then be relegated. I know they are low on cash, but I would have never thought it could be this bad. I know with Dortmund, they spent Champions League money and they dropped out before the group phase, which pushed them into a critical phase. Is this a similar situation, where having a bad season last year and not making the UCL really crushed the bottom line? Schalke seemed to spend all their money under Fred Rotten, because I’ve spent more on football than Magath has this season. So was it just last year or an accumulative affect, because I know they have a decent sponsorship with Gazprom.

Hi Christopher,

First, yesterday’s mail. Well, feel free to publish it, as long as you make clear that it’s an e-mail reply to a question. (If it was a proper article, I’d have to do a lot more research because the topic is pretty complicated.)

And that – being complicated, I mean – also holds true for the situation at Schalke. Since the club, in contrast to Dortmund, has not issued shares and is not listed on the stock market, it is not required to open its books to the public. So even those journalists who currently cover the affair and claim to be in the know can really only make guesses.

As far as I understand matters such as this one, Schalke’s problem is not that the club has such large debts. There was (and is, I guess) a good plan with regard to how to pay back the loans. It must have been a good plan, otherwise Schechter & Co. Ltd., the investment bank, and the creditors wouldn’t have agreed to it.

(I guess that part of the plan was qualifying for Europe on a regular basis, which means that you have to have a good squad, which is why Schalke then put most of their sponsorship money – from Adidas and Gazprom – into the squad. Which then underperformed. That’s also what got Dortmund into trouble all those years ago.)

The problem seems to be liquidity, meaning having enough money readily available to cover the running costs and such things. (You can be technically very rich and still run into liquidity problems, of course, if you need cash pronto.) The sponsorship deals are of no help, because that money is already spent or tied up somewhere.

But, again: these are all guesses and no one outside the club knows how severe the problems really are.

As regards the question about Schalke being relegated, that – sorry, but I said it’s a complicated topic – depends on a number of things. If the club was dissolved and then founded again, the senior football team would – under normal circumstances – have to start at the very bottom of the pyramid, in lowest amateur football. If the DFL (German Football League) decides that Schalke is so financially unstable that the club must have been less than honest in presenting its documents when it applied for a license for professional football (which clubs have to do every year, usually around March), the DFL could revoke Schalke’s license. Which would mean automatic relegation to non-professional football.

(Theoretically, that should be the fourth division, now that the 3. Liga has become a professional league, but since there are Bundesliga clubs’ reserve sides in the 3. Liga, Schalke would in all likelihood be relegated to this league.)

(In the summer of 1982, 1860 Munich – then a top club in the Second Bundesliga – were denied a license for professional football and the team was demoted to the Bayernliga, back then the third flight.)

The DFL could also deduct Schalke points for financial irregularities or for covering things up (in April 2008, the DFL sentenced second-division Koblenz to a deduction of eight points because the club had failed to present some crucial contracts when it applied for a professional license.).

So, the situation is far from clear and there are a lot of possible scenarios.

Cheers,
Uli

The focus our our talk was to discuss new players from the transfer window, although we did discuss some other players as well. I will list the player and then his response.

Geromel at Cologne

He doesn’t feel that he will have much chance of making a dent in the World Cup squad for Brazil. Like many Brazilians plying their trade abroad, he is virtually unknown back home. This is especially the case for players that didn’t start off in the Brazilian league, and Geromel was developed in Portugal. With no constituency, its almost impossible to get a call up. That constituency usually is made through the fans and the media. Geromel is kind of like Alfonso Alves of Middlesboro, who came out of nowhere and was able to use a brilliant scoring record in Holland, including 7 in one game to force his way onto the side. But even then he and Dunga were roundly criticized when he was called up. Even if Geromel were to garner the attention of Dunga, it would not go over well with the fans and media.

Lucas Barrios at Dortmund

The Argentine brought over from Colo Colo of Chile has scored goals everywhere. However this has mostly been at smaller clubs. He’s fairly ungainly, which is possibly why it took him so long to get a chance at a big club like Colo Colo. But once again, he was able to score for them, so it will be interesting to see if he can transition to the Bundesliga. He’s a front-to-goal goalscorer, who likes to play off the last man. Not the best collective player, but he has a record that can’t be discounted when it comes to judging how he might do.

I asked about his quickness to pull out of a challenge. Tim felt that it’s just an adjustment, as it is with so many South Americans coming over to Europe, where they face defenders built like wardrobes.

Juan Arango of Gladbach

He’s a player Tim has always admired the Venezuelan with the big booming left foot. He’s been following him for over a decade, but he has been a little bit disappointing over the past two to three years. You expect a player to be better at 27 than 24, which hasn’t happened. However, he feels that he’s the type of player that tends to excel in Germany, where South American playmakers have always fared well because the midfield isn’t as squeezed as in England. but it’s also a natural progression from Germany’s recent transition from a three to four man backline, where the defenses are still playing too deep, to compensate for the lack of a sweeper.

Rafinha of Schalke

Tim has always rated the fullback very highly. He wrote about him as early as 2005 for the World Soccer Magazine. He has terrific lung power with quality end product. He’s an excellent attacking fullback. Being that he is behind Maicon and Daniel Alves, it could be a long time before he gets a chance with the World Cup squad. “Rafinha” sounds like “Hafinya” when pronounced by a Portuguese speaker.

Franco Zuculini of Hoffenheim

Excellent prospect! He’s a Diego Simione type figure as an all-around central midfielder: gets his foot in, wins the tacklel, is physically dynamic, can get into the opposing box and can score goals too. He’s a fiery character and a central midfielder of whom Argentina have a lot of hope for in the future at the senior level.

Maicosuel of Hoffenheim

He is a prospect who bounced around from club to club before exploding at Botafogo. He’s physically frail and Tim is interested to see how he adjusts to Germany. Even his good run at Botafogo was during the State Championships where he may have been flattered by the weak quality in the opposition. This run at the start of this year was the first time since he emerged three years ago that he actually delivered on his promise. While he has a lot of pace running with the ball, it’s a bit of a gamble by Hoffenheim as the player has never shown ability week-to-week against quality opposition.

Marcelo Moreno Martins or Werder Bremen

He’s Bolivian, but his father was a Brazilian player. He is known in Bolivia as Marcelo Martins. But when he came to Brazil to play he was called Marcelo Moreno (which is his first last name) due to the differences in culture between the Portuguese and Spanish speaking cultures. He scored a lot of goals for Cruzeiro. There’s a little bit of Gabriel Batistuta in him without the pace (although he wanted that comparison not to be overblown). He was squeezed out at Shaktar but he can play up top and can link the play. If he doesn’t get much time at Werder due to the third return of Claudio Pizarro, it could spell doom for his career as a player needs to be playing at this age.

Mineiro of Schalke

He’s the guy that scored the goal for Sao Paulo that beat Liverpool in 2005. He is honest as the day is long and will run all day. He makes up for a lack of technical ability with his honesty and application. Tim always thought he was a disaster pick-up for Scolari at Chelsea, as this free pickup more than anyone reinforced the idea a Portuguese clique at Stamford Bridge. But he could see why he would be wanted. He is a good bloke to have around and perhaps that was what Magath was looking for by picking him up cheap: a good influence in the dressing room.

Another week, another victory! This week was a 4-0 route of Nuremburg. Bayer 04 have become, along with HSV, one of the dominant teams in the Bundesliga. But it was only a year ago that Bayer, under Bruno Labbadia had a blistering start. But it wasn’t anything comparable to this start, because the Werkself aren’t just winning, their winning with panache and style. They are also playing defense (five shutouts already). The question will be whether they will falter late this season, much like they did last year. It doesn’t seem to be on the cards. Let’s look at seven reasons that the Bundesliga’s 2nd place specialists might be on course for their first title.

1. Home Sweet Home

   They are back home at the BayArena after a 20 months project to expand and cover the almost 90 year old stadium drove them away for the second half of last season. With an increase in 8,000 seats to take BayArena over 30,000, they are no longer a Zweite level club when it comes to attendance. There is also the uniqueness of the ground, which is now the world’s largest Makrolon roofed stadiums. This new roof covers almost the entirety of the pitch and has proven to be much better at capturing noise than the more repressed awnings of the 1986 additions. With a loud imposing stadium, Bayer are undefeated this year. This is a direct contrast to the home form they had last season when they moved to the LDU in Dusseldorf. With their own home, they shouldn’t suffer through a seven game winless streak at home at any point. Undoubtedly they will do better than the seven points they mustered in Dusseldorf.

2. Kid’s Can’t Finnish First

   It was a simple change, and one that FM gamers would kick a puppy over, but when Rudi Voller swapped the future superstar Henriquie for the old warhorse Sami Hyypia, it would be one of the smartest moves he ever made. Hyypia has lost a step, but physically can handle the big forwards that dominate the league. There is no better reader of the game in the league and his ability to command and organize the back gives Leverkusen a stronger spine than any of their competitors, perhaps for Hoffenheim. He has also shown the ability to start play with a long pass out of the back. But really where he will be worth his weight in gold, will be his influence on Rene Adler. Always a shot-stopper with few peers, he is learning the most keeper’s most important skill set under the veteran – command.

3. Germany’s #1

   Adler looked off-the-boil last year. There was no doubt about it. A kid that had been one of the few keepers that could make you watch a game, seemed disinterested. We chalked it up to his back, but suddenly he’s looking nimble again. Could it be that the pressure of being Germany’s #1 along with trying to lead a young defense for his club was weighing too heavily on the emerging superstar? It seems very plausible now. With Hyypia as the leader, Adler seems to be unburdened a little bit. Does Bayer now have the best keeper in the league after a year of having its biggest enigma? And with Schalke desperate for cash, Bayer should be able to hold onto the keeper through the winter break. How long they can avoid Adler’s inevitable move to Old Trafford is another story.

4. Finally!

   Stefan Kiessling was once called the next Jurgen Klinsmann. I’m not fond of these “next” labels. But what Kiessling is doing this season is living up to the potential that everyone saw in him. He has become a fantastic link man, who can finish and is good in the air. He is also willing to start the defense by his pressing opponents in their own third. In many respects, he is quickly catching up to Ediz Dzeko in ability to link and finish. He has 7 goals in the first 8 games and has become pivotal in the buildup play for this high octane attack.

5. Midfield Dominance

   Simon Rofles is perhaps Europe’s most cultured defensive midfielder. He doesn’t tackle recklessly, he doesn’t foul unnecessarily and he doesn’t panic. But he gets the job done. He is able to break up play, distribute the ball, bring the ball out from deep and finish when needed. Renato Augusto is the best #10 in the league, now that Diego has departed. Arturo Vidal is a highly skilled Jack-of-all-Trades, who can bomb down the right or play deep with Rofles in a double pivot. Barnetta is a great left wing, and is brutal on the counter. As a unit, they force teams wide and they attack and defend in equal measures. While Bayern has the bigger names, the reason that Bayer and HSV are at the top of the league is because they have better all-around midfields.

6. Depth
   Bayer was recently a team that could look to perhaps the 12th man at best. Voller has begun to build a squad that has overall depth to deal with the inevitable injury. In fact, it already has. When Augusto went down, Toni Kroos was able to slot in on the right, pushing Vidal into the center. They haven’t even started using wunderkind Lars Bender. And with Kladec, Schwaab and Castro as fullbacks, they have depth in an always tenuous position, but also the ability to bring Castro to the midfield if needed. Up front, they have four forwards with the aforementioned Kiessling, newcomer Erin Derdiyok, veteran Gekas and last year’s top scorer Patrick Helmes, when he returns from injury. In the back, Hans Sarpei provides cover for Hyypia and Freidrich. It’s not Manchester United depth, but they are only competing in the league.

7. It’s Always the Coach

   Rafael Honigstein covered Juup Hyneckes’ contributions in his column this week at the Guardian. Needless to say, the man that almost won Bayern the title last year, when all look lost, is a much better match for such a young squad. A team built on youth needs a father figure and Hyneckes is much better at the role than Labbadia could ever be. His calm demeanor seems to be the perfect match for the laid-back Voller and squad too. It’s not that Labbadia isn’t as good as Hyneckes (although only time will tell), but Hyneckes is the better fit at Leverkusen.

One of the strengths of Footbo has been the ability of users to grade a game and the performances within. Recently they made changes to the widget that allows for this user interaction and it is a definite improvement.

I would encourage you all to check it out. Rather than getting a grade from Goal.com, which is one of the few sites that does so regularly, you can give your grade and get a real time aggregate of how people perceived the game.

Take for example, last week’s Nuremburg/Bayern match. Click here to see current grades and enter your own. This tool is available for all games.

Seriously WTF?

Two years ago Stuttgart did a nice little number on our coefficient by losing five games in the group stages. It looks like they are going to try and repeat that damage to our coefficient again this time around after an uninspiring home draw to Rangers. Unable to take advantage of the absence of Rangers’ captain David Weir, ruled out late, the Swabians enjoyed the better first half but could only must one goal from Progrebnyak. The second half they were thoroughly outplayed by a Rangers side that could barely afford the airfare let alone to strengthen their squad this year, and were probably lucky to escape with the point.

Rule number #1 that somebody, and I guess it needs to be me, needs to impress upon the Swabian heirarchy is that you win your effing home ties. Stuttgart, who are a team I have a lot of time for, are really going to get my vote for “NEVER AGAIN” if they don’t get it together. I don’t mean to be a curmudgeon here, but we can’t afford for Stuttgart to embarrass themselves again, not when we are on the cusp of getting 3rd in the UEFA Coefficient Ranking.

Two years ago they lost both games to Rangers, so some might say that this is an improvement. However, two years ago, the SPL wasn’t a league ready to drop into Nordic levels of importance in Europe. That Rangers side at least went on to challenge for the UEFA Cup. This Rangers side will be lucky to get games 7 and 8 in Europe come the new year. Well unless Stuttgart replicate their pathetic showing of two years ago, where they only beat Lyon after they had secured knock-out stage football.

And just so we all know, Hamburg embarrassed themselves and us with the same 5 loses in the group stages the year before Stuttgart, but at least they gained back some coefficient points with a semi-run in the UEFA Cup last year. I don’t expect Stuttgart to make the semi-finals, but a third place finish is the minimum. So they need to start winning games to pay us back for ’07.

We are very close to stealing a 3rd spot from Italy in the Champions League, which means a fourth team and three automatic slots. And its all riding on Stuttgart after Wolfsburg and Bayern showed that they are ready for a knock-out stage visit.

Or maybe the Champions League just comes at a bad time for the Swabians. If they played the competition exclusively in April and May, they might be aiming for their third straight title. But it’s played NOW, so get it together Babbel!

They suck. Plain and simple! They promised us 3 games a week and they are already backing off to 2 games a week at best. They promised a contest that never materialized. They pick up Europa and won’t even show German teams. I appreciate the live games, but let’s not fool ourselves. They have only done so to accommodate more La Liga games. And now on top of all of it, they have cut Hallo Bundesliga from an hour show to a half-hour. They spend more time editing a pre-taped show than just putting it out there. And this after I interviewed the only likable character at that god forsaken network: Lindsay Dean, who is the voice of that show.

But as is their way, rather than telling us the truth, they lie or omit facts. This site will not longer shill to make these idiots look better than they are.

Let’s take the easy task of taping a game. That would require that these people actually send a schedule to a cable outfit, something they are incapable of doing. I had to tape a three hour block just to find Hallo Bundesliga on Tuesday. And if I wanted to tape a game, I can’t do so until the day of, because they don’t release their super secret schedule to the cable companies until Saturday. Perhaps they are afraid if we start taping games, we won’t stick around to watch Mexican infomercials about how to make our erection last longer. It seems that Mexican erections are definitely more important to Rodrigo Lombello than the most exciting league in the world.

And rather than give us the Cologne English feed with Alan Partridge, they make us suffer through the few games they offer with ditto-head extremist Phil Schoen and the only broadcaster this side of hell that made Tommy Smythe seem intelligent in Ray Hudson. He doesn’t even know the league and makes up half the crap he talks about. When Franck Ribery is injured, he’s actually at a loss for words.

I am just going to give up on the network and get my Bundesliga via illegal means. It’s better than dealing with this organization (and there is an oxymoron if I’ve ever seen one).

Hopefully ESPN will be ready when network is out-of-business to pick up the league when they have a full-time channel for the beautiful game.

Lindsey Dean of GolTV was kind enough to speak with me about the Bundesliga.   Those of us in America will know Lindsey as the voice of Hallo Bundesliga, the league’s review show on GolTV.  Lindsey is originally from Maine and grew up in New England; however, he enrolled at the University of Copenhagen in 1977 at the age of 19. He spend a year in Denmark and during that time he played for a small Danish side by the name L.I.F. Allerød/Lillerod (now Allerød FK), which has produced Peter Løvenkrands and Danish womens national team player Bettina Falk .  While Lindsey has a varied background in sports broadcasting having done almost every sport imaginable (including suffering through the painful pre-Belechick era of the Patriots), he isn’t some American who stumbled into the Bundesliga because there was a paycheck.  Lindsey has a pedigree.

1977 was a golden year for Borussia Mönchengladbach, who won their third straight title that year, and also met Liverpool in a memorable final of the European Cup.  One of the star players of that side was the Dane Allan Simonsen, who won the European Player of the Year and Lindsey watched this magical season in Denmark, where every Gladbach game was aired and watched religiously.  This was his introduction to the Bundesliga.

When he returned, he kept up with the Bundesliga the way so many of that generation did, by watching Soccer Made in America with Toby Charles.  I asked him if it’s in anyway odd to him that he would become the modern version of Mr. Charles.  He was humbly unwilling to compare himself to Toby Charles, but he did fondly remember the man that brought America the Bundesliga for so long.  He remembered his eloquence with words and could even recount a time when Toby said “Dusseldorf Dogs were wagging their tales in delight.”   I asked him if we was ever tempted to use the phrase “that shot was high, wide and not very handsome” which he enjoyed, although I don’t think I convinced him to use it.  But while Toby Charles would help shape the style of his commentary, he was quick to note that he grew up in a golden era of sportscasters. His influences include the likes of Johnny Most, Jim Karvellas, Gil Santos and Marty Glickman.

The next subject in our conversation was how he got started at GolTV.  At the time, he was working as an associate attorney at a South Florida law firm. However, he really felt unsatisfied by the work. He returned to sports broadcasting, (having done a plethora of work in New England prior to his move to Florida for law school),  as the P.A. announcer for the NHL’s Florida Panthers, and also as the radio/internet voice of the defunct Miami Fusion of MLS.  After the Fusion folded, Phil Schoen called him to tell him that someone was starting a soccer channel in Miami.  Dean auditioned and has been with GolTV ever since.   Besides his work on Hallo Bundesliga, Lindsey is both a play-by-play and color analyst commentator for various GolTV matches. As we talked about the start of GolTV, we realized that the Bundesliga owes a big bit of gratitude in the states to the Miami Fusion, where Ray, Phil and Lindsey were once all employed.

I asked him about his preparation for the weekly show and he gave me the breakdown of the week.  He is obviously privy to the matches he does commentary for, of course, but he has the full library of games at his disposal.  By Sunday he is reading game reports and summaries.  By Monday he has the DFL’s productions package and makes notes on each match.  Tuesday, he looks for news and finalizes his script.  The last minute check is invaluable as so much can happen from Sunday to Tuesday afternoon.  With U.S. players like Steve Cherundolo and Michael Bradley, as well as Canadians Paul Stalteri and Rob Friend, Lindsey keeps a close eye on the North American players in the league, and tries to include information about their appearances and status. For example, because of the situation with Landon Donovan and H1N1, Steve Cherundolo and Michael Bradley were quarantined by their respective clubs.  By the time he enters the studio, it usually takes him from an hour and a half to two hours to voice the show,  due in part to the preparation completed in the 48 hours leading up to the show’s final production.

I asked him about his expectations for this year.  He doesn’t see the season as a one-horse race (and I did this interview before the last two Bayern debacles).  While he feels that Bayern have a plethora of talent , he mentions the lack of a top class goalkeeper as one issue, and he also wonders about how well new signings like Mario Gomez will perform.   He feels that Wolfsburg are quite capable of repeating, due to having a very balanced squad, with a strong defense, a good central midfield pairing and great flank play to complement Grafite and Dzeko.  He, like Andy Brassel, brought up Ziani as a signing to look out for.

He feels that it will be more difficult for Hoffenheim this season,  as they will not be able to surprise anyone like they did in the first half of last season.  He thought that the challenge for them would be tactically, in that their opponents are now much better prepared for Hoffenheim’s intense attacking play.  Finally, he feels that, although it’s very early, it appears that Felix Magath has already made big improvements at Schalke, similar to how he began to improve things at Wolfsburg.  But for Magath, the job is a bit easier this time around, as Schalke already had the makings of a good team.  He could see them as dark horses.

Mostly he was looking forward to the season as the Bundesliga is so high-scoring and full of attacking play.   He says that one of reasons why the Bundesliga has so much scoring is the number of big, strong strikers, who are typically very hard to defend for a full 90 minutes.  (Don’t tell the EPL).  And he said something that I felt needed a quote as it was quite a great insight by Lindsey, “the mentality of attacking play comes in part from some of the philosophies of legendary players as far back as the 70’s, some of whom manage clubs and work to keep that attacking mentality.”  That a deserving place to end this piece, don’t you think?

While it comes out in September, I was fortunate enough to get an advanced copy of Englischer Fussball: A German’s View of our Beautiful Game. It was handed to me by the man himself. But there was a problem with his timing. Rafa had handed this book to me right in the middle of book seven in the Harry Potter series. If there is one person you don’t want to follow in a reading list, it’s J.K. Rowlings. It’s kind of like standing next to Brad Pitt as you flirt with women. Disaster is imminent.

But it wasn’t. First of all, we read his columns every week, so we know how good a writer he is. But more importantly, Rafa crafted a book that was so good, it compares favorably to the gold standard of all footballing books, Franklin Foer’s How Soccer Explains the World. The key to it was that he was able to straddle a fine line between being a sociology book, such as a Kuper or Buford book and a history book, such as a Uli Hesse-Litchenberger book. Usually a book is one or the other. It’s an audacious experiment to combine the two, but Rafa has the goods to do it and do it well.

So taking this sociological and historical cross-section, Honigstein gives a view of what the English game is all about. What is its place, not only in England, but in all of our world and how did it get to be that way. Why does hardness matter; why is fairness so crucial; why are the stands so important to the supporters why does it try to stamp out individuality. It’s a tale of how a game and a culture cross-pollinated to give us the world’s most popular league.

I will say right now that the English will probably not care for it, because for the first few chapters, he breaks down the game with a fairly critical eye. He will have his share of critics because he dares to deride aspects of the English brand. By the end of the first few chapters, I was ready to give up on the Premiership. Despite this early criticism, Rafa is a fan and he shows a love for the English game. Thus he begins to build it back up and by the end, you love the league again. And that is in the long run, how he was able to compete with Harry Potter, because the book is a bit of a ride, first as it strips away your love of a league and then gives it back.

Without giving anything away, I can only say that the first chapter of this book is absolutely hands-down the most interesting chapter in any book about football ever. I was amazed by it and I had some long nights getting to sleep as I pondered the propositions in that chapter and either countered or agreed with them. The last chapter, where he concerns himself with the Germans’ view of the war, might be the most poignant ever written. And the little I am willing to give away is a line he writes about the one-sided feelings of the English hatred of Germans. Regarding the chants and jibes made by the English against Germany, such as the song “Ten German Bombers”, he says that it can never harm the Germans because at the end of the day, speaking as a German “we are grateful that we lost the war.”

In between the interesting first and the emotional last, Rafa addresses the English media, the development of the English brand of football, the man who changed the game and gets no credit, why suffering is so crucial to the English fan, the obsession of the English regarding foreign influence on the game, fan fashion and the future of the league.

It’s a very eclectic mix of angles to provide and complete picture of English football. And is a book that only someone, not tied to the game through ancestry could pull off. This is a book that should be in the library of every football fan.

He does have one glaring error. Speaking of Euro 2000, he mentions the riots in Charleroi during the England-Germany group match. I was at that game and there were no riots in Charleroi. The riots took place in Brussels with fans who couldn’t get to the game. But it’s a long running misconception by many.

Hamburg shook off their early season funk and tore apart Dortmund at the Nordbank Arena. It was the 4th straight victory for the Dinosaurs at home against BVB. A series of early goals seemed to settle the match by the 12th minute. Guy Demel pushed the first over the line after a massive keeper error in the 4th. Ze Roberto found a gap, a post and a rebound for the 2nd in the 10th and Guerrero finished, after a blistering run by Elia in the 12th. Dortmund who scored an equalizer after the first goal, when Hamburg were guilty of a lack of concentration never seemed up to the fight after Elia’s run and would conceed a 4th late in the game.

For Dortmund’s Jurgen Klopp, he at least escaped Hamburg without a fine this year. And that’s about the only positive thing that can be said for his team’s performance.

7 Notes About the Match

1. I think Hamburg were a little guilty of what English clubs do in the UEFA Cup/Europa League. They didn’t take the second leg of their tie with Randers seriously, having a 4-0 road victory in hand. They then let themselves get complacent, which happens when teams don’t take a game seriously. They then went out and lost at home to Randers, barely scraped by Fortuna Dusseldorf and put in a pedestrian performance against Freiburg to start the season. Aston Villa last year and Tottenham two years ago never seemed to recover. This week in their first home game of the season, they seemed to get over their slump and thus the change in Fortuna.
2. This must be the best-rounded midfield Hamburg has had in a while. With Eljera Elia being an excellent left wing, Piotr Trochowski back in a more natural RW position, Ze Roberto as the runner and Jarolim as the holder, this midfield is perfectly balanced. It seems even better than when van der Vaart was there with De Jong behind him, because they didn’t have such good wingers at the time. Jarolim and Ze Roberto overwhelmed the Dortmund midfield.
3. Part of this was Sahin. Unlike last week, he seemed absent as Kehl’s replacement. Had the captain been out there, I don’t think Hamburg would have had such dominance in attack. Sahin didn’t show up until the 29’ minute and that was for a shot on goal.
4. Roman Weidenfeller’s error on the first goal was ridiculous by the standards of ridiculous keeper gaffs. He came out for a cross and pulled away from it. It took more effort to stop himself punching the ball to safety than to carry through with his initial moment. He’s never came off to me as shaky on crosses, like Neuer, but maybe it’s time to reevaluate.
5. Marcus Berg (who has also scored today) had good movement and looks to be another great addition to the Dinosaurs. On the final goal, it was his pressure on Santana that forced and errant clearance, which Ze Roberto one-timed for an effort on goal. Weidenfeller got to the ball but parried it in front of goal, where Berg was ready to pounce, splitting Schmelzer and Santana.
6. This is the second week in a row that a tactical decision by Horst Hrubesch at the U21’s in Sweden seems to have made an impact on a Bundesliga coach (last week I mentioned Hummels). Jerome Boateng, who had played mostly as a fullback, was given a job in the center for the winning German team. Labbadia is now playing Boateng, who had a solid game, at center-half too, despite spending money on Rozenthal during the summer.
7. I’ll admit that I allowed Ze Roberto’s age to cloud my judgment. I dismissed his move to Hamburg, rating is as interesting rather than significant. I couldn’t have been more wrong as he is just ageless. And I think Bayern Munich will indeed regret not granting him a two-year extension. He was wonderful against Dortmund, with his goal coming out of sheer determination. He also set up Berg’s and should have aided Elia in the 38’ on another.

I had the opportunity to speak with Andy Brassell of the BBC’s excellent World Football Phone-in on Up All Night. I want to emphasize that for those of us who follow the Bundesliga, this show, although based in England, can be a massive resource. Tim Vickery, with his knowledge of South American Players, and Andy with his knowledge of the continental players as well as the Bundesliga itself can aid us in getting to understand new players to the league. Although I don’t cover it with Andy, he is an expert on the European competitions and he wrote a book called All or Nothing: A Season in the life of the Champions League and he can answer questions about our clubs/opponents playing in Europa and Champions League. Feel free to call-in to the show and ask questions. I did. If you do, they will take your name and number and call you back so it won’t cost you an arm and a leg. I still want to call back about Geromel.

How did you become an expert on the continental game?

I kind of fell into it through freelancing via some European football titles. I was always interested. It may seem odd to someone younger today, but flying was a luxury when I was young so we didn’t get to see a lot of the European teams as England were shut out of the competitions due to Heysel. Seeing the likes of Real or Milan or even an Eastern bloc team was quite romantic in those days. It became a way of travelling inside his head

Next I began to ask about new players in the league.

I’ve heard from some that Anatoliy Tymoschuk might have come 3 years too late. What do you think?

It’s a very interesting thing. When he signed, I thought that is it for Mark van Bommel, as he seems like a double for Tymoschuk. However, he still is the captain and started the first game. But I know what you mean. If you look up the stats, you notice that he’s only 2 years younger than MVB. But he is still in fantastic shape.

Overall I think he’s going be a good signing. While there is a difficulty switching from the East to Center of Europe because they play at different season times, he should make the transition smoothly. There’s no sense of development as he will be able to come in right away and be a leader. He was bought for some immediacy and should be a hit straight away. And if you look at his skills, there shouldn’t be a doubt at his ability to be a big impact at Bayern: he never dives in, he has a good range of passing and he’s a leader. He’s always been a captain since he was a kid. So he’s not exactly a short term signing as they can still hope to get a good 3 years out of him.

Danijel Pranji? and Edson Braafheid

The question is how the new signings will do. There’s a difference between proving yourself at a high level and proving yourself at a massive club. Boumjohann and Pranji? have proven themselves at the highest level, but how does that translate to the particular pressure of Bayern Munich, where every point lost is a crisis. Pranji? should be nailed on to be really good. He didn’t rush into his big move, waiting until the prime of his career. And his relationship with Braafheid, who should slot in at left back, will be important as they. LB is a position which Munich have been looking to fill so they can move Lahm to the right. Since both Braafheid and Pranji? are coming in at the same time from the same league, they could develop at the same rate together and it should be really interesting

Marcus Berg

Losing Olic was a big blow, so they needed more bodies up front. Berg has shown he can score, albeit in Holland and the U21’s. Can he make the step up to a bigger league? There are a lot of players that have scored in the Eredivisie only to fail elsewhere, so that is always a worry. However, he won’t have to start every game with Guerrero and Petric already there. He should be able to develop without pressure mounted upon him.

Eljero Elia

He is “GREAT” signing. There were lots of big clubs in for him as he was great in the UEFA Cup. But he’s not a one year buy. More like a five year buy hopefully. I expect big things from him this year.

David Rozehnal

He was excellent at PSG, but lost his way at Newcastle and Lazio. It’s odd, but he’s in so he’s in his prime but needs to re-prove himself. He’s rugged and physical, which is something Hamburg have lacked in the past. Since Van Buyten left, they’ve lacked a defender to take control of the game. But he can do it if he gets back to his PSG form and could form a great partnership with be a great with Alex Silva.

Eren Derdiyok

His voice got very excited at the mention of this young player.

He looked absolutely terrific when he came into the Swiss national team and has been very good for Basel in Europe, scoring at the highest level. He looked to be going elsewhere, but I think he made a smart move to go to the Bundesliga where he will play more often. It’s so important to be playing every week when you are 20 or 21. He did take his time with his first move. After all, he has been fated for greatness since he was 17. He’s a terrific finisher. Very intelligent. He’s a big guy who can take a battering but has a nice touch and can see a pass. He’s definitely one to watch this season.

Maniche

The key for him is to get fit. In the first game, he looked his chubby worst. When he’s on form, he can release an attack with the best of them. Even last year, he started off with Atletico like he ended with Porto, but faded. He’s always struggled with weight, which will matter in such a fast paced league, thus fitness will be his key. And he may play forward at times as they see that he can’t run enough to play central midfield all the time.

Pavel Pogrebnyak

He is a great finisher: ice cold in front of goal. Good with both feet and good in the air too. He’s the guy you want when you have to have a goal. It might take a while to transition from Russia, but the Christmas break will help. I don’t think Pogrebnyak is inferior as a finisher to Huntelaar who would have cost 4x as much. He fell a bit of the radar due to his injury during the Euros but he is far superior to Pavlyuchenko, who is good, but wouldn’t have been noticed by the likes of Tottenham had it not been for the injury.

I asked about Hleb in respect to Martin Lanig and whether his progress would suffer.

It’s all about having a squad. The thing that can derail teams, that out-do expectations, is dealing with the extra games, therefore Hleb will help them rather than derail Lanig. And it’s a good deal, as Barca are paying part of his wages.

I didn’t ask about Sami Khedira, but he did volunteer that he thinks the Stuttgart midfielder is going to be a really big star in the next 5 years.

Another player he offered up was Wolfsburg midfielder Karim Ziani. He is is defintely one to watch. He was underused at Marseille, who had an abundance of attacking midfielders, but he could be a terrific signing.

I want to thank Andy for his time, as he allowed me to stray off-point to talk about Spurs at times. That was kind of him.

I missed the first round of games on family vacation. While I still have the Gladbach-Bochum game on DVR to watch for fun, my first game of the season, albeit delayed, was Dortmund’s 1-0 victory at home over Köln. It was a thoroughly deserved victory where Dortmund put the Billy Goats to the sword and could have easily won by half a dozen goals, so commanding was their display. They held possession for 58% of the match, had 16 corners to Köln’s 1, out-shot them 24 to 7 with 11 shots on goal. Soldo’s men had no shots on goal. It was a misleading 1-0 victory, where the visitors looked unlucky to have given away an own goal. That was hardly the case, with Dortmund proving that they have the defense and midfield to push for a European slot this year.

Seven Notes About the Match

1. An argument could be made that Köln were without their biggest stars. However Geromel’s absence was negligible, as McKenna and Mohamad were two of the best players on the pitch on the day. Podolski would have made little difference as the midfield is where Köln lost the game. Novakovic would have provided a long ball target, but still it was the selection of Maniche, Chahi and Sanou where the problems lay as they were woeful on the day, incapable of passing the ball or holding it for more than two seconds.
2. The real issue was that Soldo got his tactics wrong. Last year Daum would not play Petit as a holder but as a conductor, with Pezzoni and Brosinski behind him. He tried to slot Maniche into that role, who was clearly not up to a full game. He was absent for most of the game and looked ready to keel over at any second. Meanwhile Sanou was quickly subbed for Ehret, who was a tidy player on the left last year. And markedly absent for Chahi was Vucicevic, who they let go, but was a solid player last year. So either Soldo needs to reevaluate his tactical plan or find the right players for a 4-2-3-1, which he looks set to play.
3. This brings us to the third issue: Why did Soldo take off Petit for Matic? Köln were having massive issues with getting the ball and retaining it. Taking off the one guy up to the fight was lunacy when you had another guy in Maniche who wasn’t physically ready for a full game
4. Hummels stint as a DM at the Euro’s seem to have made an impression on Klöpp as he brought the young center-half in late with the lead to pair with Sahin in a double-6 to lock down the game. It worked quite effectively.
5. Less effective was Hajnal on the wing. Absent except for corners in the first half, it wasn’t until Klöpp changed shape to a 4-1-3-2, letting Sahin set behind Hajnal, Kuba and Tinga, that we started to see the mad Magyar. He began to drift to the center and cause havoc for the Köln defense. It’s a very English move, to make a classic #10 into a wing player, but it is an option that Klöpp will have to look at unless he moves to a 4-5-1 as Kehl and Sahin are both too good to sit.
6. Barrios is going to have to toughen up. He wasn’t bad, but he did shy away from the physicality of the play and if German defenders start to sense that he’s timid, he will be a massive waste of money. He’s only been in Germany for two weeks, so I do think he will adapt. But the sooner the better as his most shining moment was a header that just missed when he lost his mark. Had McKenna stayed with him, he would haven’t tried for that ball, in my opinion.
7. The MOM would have to go to Köln’s physio. Early in the first half, keeper Fayrd Mondragon asked to be subbed after pulling a muscle in his leg. It looked to be a hamstring; however, we don’t know as they kept Mondragon on. He limped admirably through the first half, only to return in the second and play out-of-his-skin. 11 saves was almost enough to earn his side an undeserved point, but an errant leg my Matic was too much for the Colombian shot-stopper.
   

It’s funny that on the day I finished Rafael Honigstein’s book, the great Uli Hesse-Lichtenberger returned my questions for an interview that Rafael had helped facilitate. The last chapter of the book, which is very pensive and earnest, incorporates with how Germans deal with World War II. In it he praises the sense of humor of most Britons and laments on how far behind Germans can sometimes be in the category, especially self-deprecation. Yet, Rafael helped me with garner an interview with a man who probably could have been as good a comedian as he is a writer. I hope you enjoy the interview as much as I did, as Uli talks to me about his books, the league and his club.

I’ve heard rumor of a new book. Any information about it?

“I’ve written three books now, one in English and two in German, but I don’t intend to let this become a habit. In fact, the third and to date last one only came out because it was a collection of weird but true stories which I had already written and published in various places. I’d have never had the time to write it from scratch.”

When it comes to Tor!, how long did it take you to research the book? I have to say, that it astounded me how much detail was in that book: including Nazi flags as uniforms, Puma vs Adidas, club naming structures, to name a few, besides the history of the league/s.

“It took almost exactly eleven months to write the book. Not so much because English isn’t my native language but because I had to try this and that until I knew how to structure the narrative, what to leave out, what to put in, whom to feature prominently, whom to discard. In fact, what you call ‘details’ is pretty much the result of all that tinkering. Because you can’t have a thorough and comprehensive history without many seemingly smaller stories and lots of people – otherwise the read will be a drag. Which is a long-winded way of saying that I didn’t really research things such as that adidas versus Puma parable with an eye towards the book. I knew the story, have known it for a long time. The question was: is this the kind of story that will help the book by keeping it lively? I decided it was. In some similar cases, I decided against using a certain story, some of them quite intriguing. So, writing: eleven months. Research: my life as a football fan.”

Having covered East German history, what do you think it will take for the region to start challenging at the highest level. It’s almost 20 years on and we now face a season without one Eastern side. Is this the chasm you spoke of and is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

“Excellent question. Will you allow me to cop out by saying that Hertha did challenge last season? Berlin, after all, is east of, say, Magdeburg or Leipzig. But I guess you really mean East German as in ‘from the territory of the former GDR’. In that case, I have no idea. First of all, I regret to say, it takes money. You may have heard that Red Bull has begun to invest in a small club from Leipzig. This annoys many fans, who feel that here’s an upstart threatening to overtake the two tradition-laden clubs, Sachsen and Lokomotive, solely because of money. But finances are very important. In fact, finances are the primary reason the big GDR clubs, the Dynamos and Madgeburg, are languishing. It was all a mess when the Wall fell. The Eastern clubs got raided, lost the best players, and were then also taken to the cleaners by con men.”

How did you come to be not only a football journalist, but a historical football journalist: after all besides the book, you gave us the SV Alsenborn piece, Brunswick/Jagermeister, Hennes the goat.

“I guess what you mean is that I’m not a beat writer, not someone who regularly covers a team or a league for a newspaper, but what is known as a feature or magazine journalist plus a columnist. Well, it’s because that’s what I like best. Transfer rumours and other speculations just bore me. And I have no idea why interviews with active players and coaches are so central to today’s sport journalism, as the vast, vast majority of them are utterly devoid of anything noteworthy.”

And what was the most interesting historical piece you came upon during your years as a journalist?

“You mean the story that fascinated me the most? Either the 1919 Black Sox scandal or Jackie Robinson breaking the colour barrier in 1947. In case you’re asking about a German story and/or a football story, I guess the history of the Dassler family, the adidas versus Puma war, indeed is an incredible tale – and a great mystery.”

Bayern Munich: odds-on favorites or overrated? Who challenges them?

“Despite Wolfsburg’s awesome form in the second half of the season, the past campaign was more or less thrown away by Bayern. They won’t let this happen again, which doesn’t mean they’ll definitely win it, it just means they are the favourites. Wolfsburg, Hamburg and Stuttgart should be there or thereabouts again. And for some reason I think Werder will be much improved.”

Hoffenheim: are they here to stay or will they have second season syndrome?

“It’ll be both tougher and easier for them, as both the euphoria that carried them and the hatred they often encountered should subside. Which means they will be more of a normal side this year. So: no sensational winning run but no prolonged slump, either.”

Which team had the best summer in the transfer market?

“Taking everything into account, Bayern. Yes, they still haven’t solved this problem at right back, but if you get Mario Gomez and Ivica Olic, that’s pretty damn good. And I think losing Lucio will prove to be a blessing in disguise.”

Are Stuttgart good enough to challenge in Europe this year?

“They should be out of their depth in the Champions League, but making it far in the Europa League is a possibility. Provided, of course, they get there via the Champions League. Gosh, how complicated all this has become!”

How long will it take Magath to make Schalke into contenders? And you cannot answer never!

“There are two Schalke fans I know who have – independently of each other – told me there isn’t a shadow of a doubt that Schalke will win the league next season.”

How do you feel about Dortmund’s chances this year?

“I don’t think we’ll finish sixth again, but that’s no catastrophe. In the span of almost exactly twelve months, we’ve lost two proven goalscorers, Mladen Petric and Alex Frei, and have gotten a bunch of nice lads in return who’ll cover a lot of ground but will rarely score. If we finish in seventh, eighth or ninth place, that’s okay with me.”

Are you as enamoured with Jurgen Klopp as most?

“Honest answer? Yes. I’m aware he could be a complete charlatan who uses his brains, charisma and looks to con people into thinking he’s a good coach when in fact he might be totally useless. But I’ve come to suspect that this is the perfect job description for a football coach, anyway. On a more serious note, he hasn’t made any obvious blunder yet and has at the very least managed to turn a comatose, bloodless side into a team nobody really wants to play. Without completely overhauling the personnel. That’s impressive.”

Will you be able to hold onto Subotic and Kuba this year?

“I don’t worry about Kuba, he lacks consistency and is not really a key player. But Subotic … yes, that’s a problem. The day will come when he figures he’s given Klopp all he owes him. Then he’ll move on.”

What are your thoughts on the wunderkind Sven Bender?

“At Dortmund, we deeply distrust wonder kids. There was a coach, and we won’t mention names, who claimed Christian Timm was the greatest talent in all of Germany. Before that, we all were pretty sure that Lars Ricken was the most talented player of his generation. And I was at the ground when an 18-year-old Daniel Simmes scored the Goal of the Year in 1984 against Leverkusen. It was a solo across almost the whole of the length of the pitch, proving beyond, er, doubt this was a superstar in the making.”

How do you think Lucas Barrios and Rangelov will fit in with the squad? WIll they be adequate replacement for Frei?

“Like I said, both seem to be guys who are willing to track back, cover a lot of ground and help the team. Just like Valdez and Zidan, then. And unlike Petric and Frei, the two we let go. There’s quite obviously a method to this.”

What pieces do you feel that Dortmund are missing from challenging for the title?

“Sorry, did you say ‘title’? You mean as in ‘league title’? Well, er, how’s about 30m Euros?”

I had a long conversation with Mani Honigstein, who is the brains behind the football social networking site Footbo. An avid Bayern Munich fan, I talked to him about the summer transfers and his views on the season ahead for the Bavarian giants.

Tell us a little about Footbo, and what you are trying to accomplish with it.

In 2007, when social networking was really taking off, we combined my access to venture capital through work with Rafael’s access to players. We added Gabriel Marcotti and Guillem Balague to the advisory board and started Footbo. We are doing a lot to change the layout of the site and we are we are constantly improving the interface.

In general, Footbo is really trying to bring a lot of the online football needs to one place. We are on the crossroad of being a social network and a content site. Now that we have the concept right, we are moving into new languages, such as Portuguese because Brazil is such a social-networking savvy country, as well as moving into new markets with improved features, such as player ratings with commentary. The feedback and usage patterns are very encouraging.

So for a little clarification, if you don’t use Footbo, you really should. You can really do a lot via setting up teams your fans of (I have every Bundesliga side as well as Malmo, Tottenham and Rubin Kazan) as well as players. In addition it has a friending system much like a Facebook or MySpace. But unlike Facebook, here you won’t have to read about your friend’s baby’s eating patterns. There are a lot of unique and fun features and it is a great repository of news. I highly recommend the site and feel free to friend me.

How do you feel about Van Gaal’s hiring and do you see it petering out or leading to properity?

I feel good about it. Van Gaal is probably a bit old school, but I believe he will bring to Bayern what we need most: continuity. It was a mistake to fire Magath in the third season and Bayern needs a coach that can be with the team for the long haul, 5 years or so. Bayern will always always have the pressure to be German champion and I believe with Van Gaal we can have have a long streak of championships.  

Considering the lineup you currently have, what kind of formation do you see Van Gaal employing?

4-4-2 for sure.

Do you see differing formations for the league and Champions League?

Not really. Last year we played against Barcelona with only one real striker, Toni. It was a disaster.

Is there a formation you would prefer?

I would love to see Bayern move to a 4-3-3, but we do not have the players for it. So it looks like it will be 4-4-2 again. Gomez and Klose will play up front.

Can the dressing room deal with 5 forward, 4-5 attacking mids and 3 holding mids?

This will be one of the major challenges of for Van Gaal. Nerlinger said that the squad is too big. I assume that some will leave us in the winter. My guess is Toni, Ottl and maybe Lell.

Defensively how will you cope with the loss of Lucio?

I loved Lucio, but he had played poorly for the last two years. He was a danger for Bayern, as his forays forward left us exposed too often. I do not think that we will miss him much. The new defense looks solid. Van Buyten was amazing at Hamburg, but never really made it at Bayern. Maybe this is his year. And while Van Gaal has said he prefers a left foot at LCB, he has used DiMichelis and Van Buyten so far. Gorlitz isn’t good enough. Niether is Lell. And Breno needed time on loan to get experience, but that won’t happen now as he will be called upon along with Braafheid for depth in the league and Europe.

Who worries you the most in the league?

To be honest no one really worries me. Last year showed that it was Bayern who simply could not win the Championship. No other team is strong enough to beat us in the long run. Whenever, Bayern is somewhat weak (like last season) there is the chance for a surprise. But it always depends on Bayern. I do fear Schalke, because I really believe in Magath. But not this season. He needs time to build something there.

Your first 5 game include 4 teams that could challenge for the title, including Hoffenheim, Wolfsburg, Dortmund and Werder.  How important will a good start be to your chances of regaining the title?

It is very important, because the media at Bayern is crazy. You lose three games and everybody gets nervous. Then you have Rummennige, Beckenbauer and Hoeness all sending different messages, ex-players such as Matthaeu giving their opinion and here you go: the crisis is there. But Hoffenehim is not stable enough, Wolfsburg will have a hard time to adjust to the new situation, Dortmund is still middle class and Werder lost the best player of the league !

You got most of your transfers done early in the summer.  The rest of the league was significantly behind you.  Will that aide or abet you as you seem to need to cull a few players? And what do you make of these transfers?

Well Gomez is good, but way too expensive. For that kind of money you could have had a Benzema. I do not know why we bought Olic and Tymoschuk. These are the kind of transfers that have never worked out for Bayern in the past. Overall I was a bit angry at Bayern, because it seemed they do not have a clear vision. They wanted Diego, but only tried once it was too late. Diego has been the best player of the league in the last three years and only at the very end did they make a move for him. And once they realized they couldn’t get him, they didn’t try to get someone else. The same for goalkeepers. It is obvious that both Butt and Rensing are not good enough.

So do you think there will be a move for a keeper?

No, while they realize that Rensing is not the successor to Oliver Kahn, they feel they can get away with him for another year. They made a soft bid for Manuel Neuer this past summer, but in the long run, they are going to go for Neuer or Adler so that they have the best German keeper.

will Ribery be at the Allianz on September 1st?

Yes. It looks to me that Bayern will have Ribery for one more year and then he is off to Real Madrid. This could help the league in viewership as people will be interested in seeing him.

Considering that Van Gaal is a major fan of Wesley Sneijder, does it suprise you that Bayern haven’t made a move for the Real playmaker?

Yes. At one point I was sure that Ribery would go to Real and we would get both Sneijder and Van Der Vaart. This chapter is not over and I am sure the transfer of Ribery will happen latest next summer.

What other deals do you see happening before September?

Not much to be honest. The Bundesliga starts next week and I think this is the current squad. I believe that if Toni will not play, he will move to Italy in Winter. That is a safe bet in my opinion.

Muller and Budstuber make the jump this year from BMII.  What can you tell us about these two youngsters?

I do not know much about them, but I like both. I wish Kroos had stayed with Bayern and not moved to Leverkusen. Budstuber could make it to the first 11 on occassion. Muller will probably not be able to make it with Ribery, Schweinsteiger and the rest already in place. But it is good to see some young talent at Bayern.

How will you fare in the Champions League?

Good question. Well, you always need a bit of luck. Last year we got Barca early….in the Quarter Finals and had obviously no real chance. The team and the coach have a lot of experience. With a bit of luck we could reach the Semi-Final, but I can’t see us advance any further. Not yet, at least.

Believe it or not, we are just a week away from the start of another glorious Bundesliga season. Having taken the summer off from worrying about football (and cramming in seven Harry Potter books into those months), it is time to dive head-deep into my favorite passion.

The difficult thing about this year is that the season will start nearly a month before the end of the transfer window. That makes it hard to predict as teams still have plenty of time to address issues and change the course of the season early on. However I think it’s important that we do so. This year, rather than me giving my predictions, I think we will run a contest.

Your job is to provide the following:

The top six in order. +1 for each team that you guess in the top six. A perfect spot is an additional 3 and another 2 if you get the Champion correct.

Three relegation sides. +2 for any team directly relegated. +1 if a team is relegated via playoff.

The depth within the competition of the three UCL teams. Options are: out at qualification, out at Group, UEFA Spot, Group Stages, Quarters, Semis, Finals, Winners. +3 if right. +1 if the team makes it to the group stages (and you predicted at least group stage) but progresses further than you predicted. For example if you predict Wolfsburg to make the group stages and they make it to the semis, you get a point.

The Player of the Season. You cannot predict Franck Ribery. We have no idea if he will be here by September 1st. If Franck stays and he’s the player of the year, whoever is second counts for this contest. This one is worth 10 points.

Total points is 50. The final day for entry is August 17th. Any post after that will be erased. This gives you two match days, but precedes the start of the Qualification round of the UCL.

The winner will receive a signed copy of Rafael Honigstein’s new book, which comes out in September and will be reviewed shortly here.

But what would this be, if we were just competing with each other. So you will have 2 experts and an idiot to beat. The soon-to-be famous author Rafael Honigstein (and creator of Footbo) along with broadcaster Derek Rae have graciously provided their picks. So you get to see if you can beat these experts. I have also provided mine and any supporter caught below me on the final table will be handed a bicycle helmet and asked to ride on the short bus.

Derek Rae

Top 6
1. Bayern Munich
2. Bremen
3. Stuttgart
4. Wolfsburg
5. Schalke
6. HSV

Relegation: Mainz, Freiburg, Bochum

Europe:
Stuttgart (CL Round of 16)
Bayern (Quarters)
Wolfsburg (CL Round of 16)

Player: Alex Hleb (Stuttgart)

Rafael Honigstein

Top 6
1. Bayern
2. Hamburg
3. Stuttgart
4. Wolfsburg
5. Leverkusen
6. Hoffenheim

Relegation: Mainz, Gladbach, Hannover

Europe:
Stuttgart: Needs to wait for draw on August 7 (WEAK!)
Wolfsburg: last 16
Bayern: quarter-final

Player: Mario Gomez

Me

Top Six
1. Hoffenheim
2. Bayern
3. Werder
4. Stuttgart
5. Dortmund
6. Hamburg

Relegation: Eintracht, Freiburg, Bochum

Europe:
Stuttgart (UEFA Spot)
Wolfsburg (Group Stages)
Bayern (Semis)

Player: Carlos Eduardo

Have fun!

7. Hannover 96
With the retirement of Michael Tarnat and Valerian Ismael and the realization that Frank Fahrenhorst was a Zweite level defender, Hannover needed a partner for the steady Mario Eggimann. Deiter Hecking replaced the old and the inept with Karim Haggui, a player who after a rough first year had settled into a solid defender in his second campaign at Leverkusen, only lose his place and patience as Bayer 04 went for a Henrique from Barcelona. The combatative defender should make a fine partner with Eggimann who can lead and read. Building a more solid defense around Enke should lead to a rise in the table for Hannover 96.

6. Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg has a problem this year: lots of games. The grind of the Champions League is hard on new teams not used to all the extra fixtures. At no position were Wolfsburg feeling thinner than forward. An injury to their superstar pairing of Grafite and Dzeko and things could get tricky for the defending champions. Enter Obafemi Martins. While he could never replace the link place that Dzeko provides, he does provide a strong, quick alternative who can score on a dime and place a pass when needed. He gives Armin Veh options and backup, without much drop-off in quality.

5. Werder Bremen
While the return of Borowski and the era of the Marin/Oezil partnership has made all the headlines, the transfer that should return Werder to a status of title challenger is Bolivian forward Marcelo Moreno from Shakhtar Donetsk. After scoring a goal 2 out of every 3 games in Brazil, the highly sought Bolivian of Brazilian stock joined Shaktar Donesk and scored 7 in 14 for the UEFA Cup Champions. He should make up for the loss of loanee Pizarro in spades.

4. Bayern Munich
It’s hard to tell what Bayern have done. Have they strengthened by replacing Ze Roberto with Tymoschuk, a purchase Rafael Honigsteing worries might be three years late? Gomez is class, but buying for buying’s sake can leave you with an ill-formed squad. In this case, Gomez means that at least two of their collection of strikers will be disgruntled. And Edson Braahfield is an unknown who has to replace a massive presence in the back line and locker room in Lucio. The one player that does not bring a question mark is Croatian Danijel Prajnic from Hereveen. He has the technical skills so ingrained in all Croatian players, he reads the game well to help him compensate for his attacking mentality as a fullback and he can pass. He may be the best fullback in the Bundesliga before a ball is kicked. And he plays in an area that has been problematic for Bayern since a Basque player roamed that area.

3. Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin had a forward problem. They couldn’t afford Voronin. Meanwhile, Marko Pantelic and Hertha had such a hate-hate relationship that they parted ways with their once talismanic striker. What to do? Buy back Arminia star forward Artur Wichniarek from the relegated side after his 3 year sojourn from the capital. Now with a proven forward to help foster the young guns of Chermiti, Domovchiyski and Raffael, Hertha’s forward problem seem absolutely solved. And with service he never received, the Polish international could challenge to be Torschützenkönig.

2. Gladbach
Borussia Möchengladbach may have sold their biggest commodity only to get better at the same position. By swapping Marin for Venezuelan Juan Arango from Mallorca, they actually may have gotten better. There will be a settling-in period for Venezuala’s first superstar, but I have seen him tear Brazil apart, live. He is the real deal with pace and precision and this budding star should take the league by storm.

1. Hoffenheim
The strengthening of Hoffenheim’s defense is undoubtedly the story of the season, even though nobody is discussing it. It’s one thing to pick up the most consistent defender in the Bundesliga for a pittance, but to get the best LB too. Hoffenheim have strengthened in defense by adding Karlsruhe’s Christian Eichner and Hertha’s Josep Simunic, to add to their winter pickup of Timo Hildebrand. Their defense may now be the best in the Bundesliga and sits behind a devastating counter. These moves don’t mean the village team will survive again. It means they will contend again.

It started for Derek with the 1974 World Cup held in West Germany, where he fell in love with football. For him that tournament was very German in a cultural sense and he found himself gripped by the country as well as the games. It was this tournament that he described as forcing his schooling choice when it came to secondary language between French and German. But rather than learning the core and forgetting, as happens with many English speakers, he turned it into fluency that would help form a lasting connection with the country. While his first visit to Germany was at age 12 to the port city of Hamburg, he spent considerably more time in Germany as part of student exchange programs from ages 16 to 18 on the East/West German border in Hesse. The town was Wildeck-Hönebach and from the back yard of the house in which he resided he could see Communist Germany.

Just to prove his “street-cred”, the congenial Scotsman named, after his beloved Aberdeen, the Regionaliga Sud club KSV Hessen Kassel as his club during his heady days in Germany. It’s a club he obviously still holds great affinity for. He won’t name any Bundesliga club as a favorite, but having surprised himself in recounting that through his days he had been to almost every major stadium, he unabashedly named Westfalenstadion (or Signal Iduna) as not only the best, but as the Cathedral of German football. And he pointed out that football mad supporters in the Ruhr region, with their distinct sense of humor, were some of his favorites.

We spoke as he returned from ESPN’s studios in Bristol, Ct. where he is covering the Confederations Cup. International football was the starting thread as the area we live in is abuzz about the US victory over Spain. The discussion turned to Michael Bradley of Borussia Mönchengladbach. I asked him what had happened to the large number of Americans that had once made their home in the German system. He recounted the days when you could find an American at the odd Regionaliga match. Germany has had one of the loosest foreign player policies of the major leagues for some time. Back in the days when the MLS was just starting and the US wasn’t quite established as a top 20 side, there were few options for Americans in Europe. Germany was the biggest and best opportunity at that time. But culturally he admitted that it’s a difficult transition to make for many young players with the long winters (a point I found funny coming from a fellow New Englander) and new language. These days, the entry for Americans into Scotland and England is much easier as the Home Office has relaxed rules for footballers, so naturally American players are heading there, when possible, due to obvious cultural similarities. Meanwhile the emergence of the EPL as a global brand makes it doubly attractive for American footballers.

We weren’t done with Gladbach, as we discussed how Germany could start to make inroads in European competitions. Remembering the golden era of his Aberdeen side*, he reminded me of how the dominant teams of Europe in the 70’s and 80’s were German. While we remember England’s 7 out of 8 European Cups during that era, its easy to forget that Germany won four (Bayern and Hamburg), while three times they were the runners up to English sides. Meanwhile, other than Tottenham, England made little headway outside of the main tournament during that era. Gladbach won two UEFA Cups and Frankfurt and Bayer also won one, while three other finals were lost by German sides. And in the Cup Winners Cup, Magdeburg and Hamburg both won while Jena, Lokomotiv Leipzig, Köln and Fortuna Dusseldorf all lost finals.

*as a reminder to newer fans, Aberdeen had to defeat both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to lift the Cup Winner’s Cup in 1983.

While appreciative of the growing popularity of all the leagues, he did lament on the lack of perspective of some new fans and supporters. He used a line that just blew me away, “I am always disappointed when supporters think the league started when they discovered it.” He sent a fantastic message to all new fans that EVERY team has a history to tell. Sometimes it’s timeless like Barcelona, sometimes it’s old and grand like Mönchengladbach and sometimes its a brief spark like Nottingham Forest.

But when I asked about what it would take to regain some of that form for German sides, Rae was of the opinion that there was nothing they could, nor should do. While a team could spend exorbitant amounts of money for European glory, Dortmund’s dark days stand as a stark reminder that such a scenario can backfire in a league that can’t compete culturally with La Liga and Series A for the best South American talent. He felt the reemergence of the Bundesliga in Europe would be an organic process that may have well started this year with Werder Bremen. And the new found strength of Eastern Europe at the international level could help the league that is best at scouting and cultivating its talent.

Finally we turned to the season past and season to come. While he couldn’t discount Wolfsburg’s improbable run, he felt that Hoffenheim’s ability to make us believe they could do the impossible for so long was a richer story in the long run. As for the most surprising player, he quickly pointed out Zvjezdan Misimovi?. He couldn’t emphasize more the amazing difference one player had made to a side, turning a solid team into champions; whereas a year earlier he had been part of relegation. Rae has obvious respect for Felix Magath and paraphrased the manager’s assessment that sometimes the pieces just fit. In Misimovi?’s case the fit was other-worldly.

As for next year, Ribery is a very interesting situation to him. He could understand Bayern cashing in while they can for the French playmaker, especially while the money is “silly”; however, he didn’t feel that he was replaceable. Players like Ribery rarely are. So while he feels that Bayern will contend for the title, much will ride on how the club conducts itself around the Ribery sell. But Ribery wasn’t the only concern for him, when it came to Bayern. He feels that Van Gaal, while a great coach, is a polarizing figure and could backfire on Bayern, so he doesn’t think Bayern are odds on favorites. He feels that Schalke along with one other will be there to contend with Bayern. He was interested in how Wolfsburg would come along next year, but he didn’t seem overly optimistic with their chances. And finally when I asked about Marin’s move to Bremen, he said that while Diego leaves a huge hole to fill, that Marin has the character to step up to the challenge. It just may take more than a year.

I want to thank my good friend Eddie Emmanuel, a Lazio supporter, for helping connect an Aberdeen and Spurs supporter to talk about German football. It’s a grand old sport with a rich tapestry.

I used the stats feature at ESPN Soccernet to calcluate the clubs with the best attendances. Out of the top 20 attendances in Europe, Germany had 9 clubs. This post is to equip you with a tool to help promote our great league. Because, while we are in a slump in the Champions League and don’t make all the news with £80 million transfers, we have the most competitive league, the funnest league and the best attended league in the world. And we’ll get a team back to the final of the UCL.

There are so many glorious clubs in Europe, yet half of the teams in the Bundesliga (from grand to average) inhabit the best attendance list. Bayern, Dortmund, Schalke, HSV, Hertha, Koln, Stuttgart and Frankfurt beat out the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Valencia, Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Roma, PSV, Ajax, Galatasary and Porto.

Spain, England and Italy will make claims to being the greatest league in Europe. And if you base it solely on recent Champions League performances, they have some validity. However, since 2000 Valencia, Juventus, Liverpool and Chelsea have all made the Champions League finals from these leagues. Yet none of these storied teams couldn’t outdraw Eintracht Frankfurt last year. That’s right: Eintracht Frankfurt!

And while I do recognize that stadium issues prohibit some clubs from doing better, the fact that they can’t get their act together to build a stadium just shows that Germany is the best run league out there. In the time it took Liverpool to create fancy sketches, Hoffenheim built a stadium.

Below is a table of the top 20 clubs, attendance-wise. I’ve noted the position in their league in relation to attendance (note that only England could get a third team in the list) as well as the clubs final position. Note that while other countries figures seem closely related to how well a club is doing (kudos to Newcastle United fans), Germany had 3 teams in this list that were in the bottom half of the table. So the next time somebody disparages our grand league or tries to tell you that there is only one big team in Germany, trot out these numbers.

One of the Bundesliga’s funner 4-4-2’s.

GOALKEEPER
Rene Adler
Near Elder (if word about his back is true)

DEFENDERS
Paul Stalteri
Ultra Pilates (perhaps, but what about Ultra defending?)

Michael Gravgaard
Alarm! Vice! Haggard! (Jol! Agrees! Some!)

Daniel Van Buyten
Banal, Even, Untidy (it’s almost kind, even)

Dino Drpic
Drip In Cod (and on the field at that – eek!)

MIDFIELDERS
Carlos Eduardo
Sour Cad Ordeal (Indeed!)

Kevin Prince-Boateng
A Bicker Venting Peon (Nice!)

Patrick Ebert
Car Biter Kept (had they kept him longer, they may have won the title)

Orlando Engelaar
General Anal Odor (well that’s one way to put his playing style)

FORWARDS
Mario Gomez
I Go Raze, Mom! (yes you do bonito)

Lukas Podolski
Paid Solo Skulk (EERIE!)

This is a fun exercise, but please shame me with better! 🙂

Which player(s) surprised you the most this season? 

a) Misimovic. We knew he could play football, but not that well, nor that consistently. He became, alongside  Diego, the best central midfielder in the Bundesliga. Quite a step-up.

b) Grafite. Looked a little slow and ponderous in front of goal last season. Different story this time around. (probably only half the player without Misimovic and Dzeko)

c) Trochowski. In the Misimovic-mould of nearly-men in recent years, now a good reason to leave Schweinsteiger on the bench at the World Cup.

Who was the most important player to his team?

Maybe Mario Gomez. He really carried the side, especially in the second half of the season, with his goals. 

We seem to becoming a league based on streaks: Stuttgart 2007; Hoffenheim – Hertha – Wolfsburg this year. Which was more impressive: Stuttgart’s run two years ago, Hoffenheim’s start this year or Wolfsburg’s finish?

I’d say Hoffenheim’s and Wolfsburg’s runs were equally impressive on the face of it, but then Wolfsburg had a semi-decent first half, too, and timed theirs much better. I think winning 14 out of 17 games in 2009 is unbelievably good.

All three promotion sides survived. Of the 3, who looks most likely to suffer a sophomore slump?

Michael Frontzeck has already taken two teams down, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he got Gladbach relegated as well. Köln’s chances will depend on who they can get as manager. Hoffe will be okay.

We lost our last East German team. What do you think East German football needs to do to make itself competitive?

Actually, Union Berlin are going strong and things are happening at Leipzig. I don’t think anything in particular needs to change. You just need a few good men with good ideas and little bit of money.

It seems that Magath has some concerns with Schalke: aged backline and a unbalanced squad. How long do you think it will take for Magath to get Schalke contending?

That really is one of the most interesting questions for next season. Rumors are that Schalke have very little money to spend, so he won’t be able to transform the team instantly over two seasons the way he did with VfL. He will surely get them fitter. But can this squad actually play decent football? I’m not sure.

It’s a question I asked the last time we talked. With Wolfsburg retaining the “gaffer” system and Schalke now being the second club to employ it, is there any chance of more teams adopting the style? Or do you see Armin Veh folding under the pressure of both jobs only to see Wolfsburg return to the Sports Director method sooner rather than later?

I remember talking to you about that a year ago. I must admit I’m very surprised that the Bundesliga has gone down that route. Of course, success breeds copycats and Magath at Wolfsburg is getting copied. Managers have become more confident to ask for wider powers. It seems like it will be the trend for the next few years, as even Bayern are giving van Gaal more power than Klinsmann ever had. But you are right, these things can be cyclical. The first club who fires their manager and finds itself with 20 players they don’t want will think very carefully about the whole system again.

Why is Hertha’s Lucien Favre making noise about leaving?  It would seem that Hertha’s upside is still considerably large.

He was flattered by the attention from Bayern and HSV and used it politically. His threat to walk was really a clever ultimatum: he forced Hertha to choose between him and Dieter Hoeness. Hoeness was fired two days ago.

Do you know why Christophe Daum suddenly left?

Money. And the chance to win titles and play internationally. In his own mind, Daum is on a par with Mourinho et al, so helping Köln to another mid-table finish had limited appeal for him. 

Last year, we saw the emergence of some new young managers in Jurgen Klöpp and Bruno Labbadia. Both were fairly successful in their first campaign at the top level.  Why then do you think so many managerial changes so far involve a merry-go-round approach rather than trying to find new blood like Dortmund and Bayer 04 did last year?

Klopp was fairly established before Borussia went for him but it’s true: the Bundesliga seems to have become quite risk-averse. Better the devil you know – it’s a consequence of the Klinsmann debacle, probably.

With the team that Bayern seems to be building this summer: Van Gaal, Prajnic, Gomez, Olic, Boumjohann, as well as Sneijder, Tymochuck and Pandev likely; It feels like a team, regardless of Ribery’s impending departure, that on-paper are good enough to win Europe.  Do you think that we could see our first German team making a serious run at the UCL since 2002?

Hmm, I don’t know. Gomez for Toni doesn’t really change that much. I like Olic as a defensive forward (copyright Jonathan Wilson). Tymoschuk should have been bought four years ago. Baumjohann won’t feature much. Prajnic and Braafheid will be interesting although it’s never easy to evaluate the true strength of Eredivisie stars. I don’t think Pandev is really in the mix at all. Now, if they could somehow keep Ribery, they might really have a chance. But that’s highly unlikely. And Van Gaal is the first real big ego-manager at Bayern. That poses just as many risks as opportunities. I think this could go either way. Remember what happened when they put together the “White Ballet” in 2002/03 with Ballack, Ze Roberto, etc? Out in the groups stages. 

Will they end up with Adler, Neuer or other?

The word on the street is that Adler’s back isn’t quite up to it.  Neuer might yet happen. Schalke need money to pacify Magath. 

Aside from Ribery and Diego, which player seems most destined for foriegn shores this summer?

Dzeko to Milan is more than a rumour. Barnetta wants out and might be able to find a middle-class EPL team. Petric is keen to make more money, possibly in Spain.

Christophe Daum pulled off the biggest surprise of the early silly season, by quitting Cologne to return to Turkey via Fenerbahce. I would love to hear Jan’s input on this, but my take is that it could be a sucker punch for the Billy Goats as they face the sophomore curse. Daum had a somewhat iconic air at Colgne. He had helped built a solid team that needed some tweaks to reestablish the club as a permanent fixture in the top flight. Will the players, that he helped bring in, stay around for a new manager? They have a lot of talent that could be picked off with young guns Pezonni, Geromel, and Brosinksi. And the news caught favored son Lukas Podolski by surprise, and an already unhappy Podolski is going to make life tough for any new manager. Currently Slomka and Skibbe are being bandied about as possible replacements.

Ze Roberto has left Bayern after they wouldn’t give him a two-year contract. He seems to think he’s going to Manchester City. I seem to think he’s going to the MLS.

Bayern’s attempts to bring in a keeper are hitting a major road block. Manuel Neuer has said no. Being a Schalke man to the bone, that wasn’t a shock. And Bayer 04 may have set too high a price on Rene Adler for the Bavarians.

Demba Ba is making noises about leaving Hoffenheim and seems hell bent on replacing Mario Gomez at Stuttgart.

Robert Lewandowski of Lech Pozna? could be on his way to Dortmund. Does he bolster the squad or replace wantaway Alexandre Frei?

Wolfsburg made their first signing of the season with Dane Thomas Kahlenberg from Auxerre. There are suggestions that they may be after Luca Toni to be the next signing.

Werder seems to be employing a “if you can’t beat them” philosophy. They have already signed Marcelo Moreno of Shaktar on a loan to buy deal. Meanwhile they seem to be seeking two other players from the UEFA Champs in Darijo Srna and Jadson

Rodrigo Lombello is the COO of our favorite network in America GolTV. I sat down for an interview with the congenial Palmeiras supporter to talk about GolTV’s recent renewal of their Bundesliga package for the next three year.

(his answers are in Bold)

Is the new rights package, the same offered by DFL Sports Enterprise?

Yes, it is. It includes every game (306 matches) live as well as the preview show Goal! And the weekly highlight show Hallo Bundesliga. The main difference in the package for GolTV is that in addition to the US and Canadian rights, we have exclusive rights to show the Bundesliga in Latin American for the next three years.

The Bundesliga is restructuring the schedule next year. There will be a Friday night match, five 3:30 Saturday matches, a new 6:30 Saturday match, a 3:30 Sunday match and a new 5:30 PM Sunday match. (these times are all CET, which is 6 hours ahead of EST). How will that affect scheduling?

Currently our plans are to continue to show 2 to 3 games each weekend, live and tape-delayed. The new Saturday late match looks to be a marquee game each week.

Marquee game?

Yes, the league is going to try to make that game a big match.

Typically on Saturday, we get our games tape-delayed, is there any chance this later game could provide more live coverage.

Yes, we have had to use tape delay because Germany is six hours ahead of the East Coast, but 9 hours ahead of the West Coast, which has key markets like Los Angeles. Since we use a single feed for the entire country, we have shown games tape delayed so that the west coast won’t get their games at 6:30 in the morning. With this new game, the match will be at 9:30 AM for the West Coast and it is our hope that we can accommodate more live matches next year.

Well the new times must help, since the old structure had typically 6 to 8 games at the same time, which tied your hands in programming.

Yes, but we are looking into other avenues to provide more programming in the coming years either through partnering with other channels or taking advantage of on-line distribution. Since we own every game, we are working hard to find new means of connecting the fans to the games.

And the Friday game? Can you tell me more about that?

Well the Friday game has a few issues. First it’s at 2:30 EST when everyone is at work. In addition, it rarely involves the more well-known clubs, who are usually involved in mid-week European games. Anytime it involves Bayern, we show that game live and tape-delayed.

Is Bayern the only team that draws substantial numbers?

Not at all. While they do provide the best numbers, Schalke, Hamburg and Werder Bremen have had consistently strong audiences. The Bundesliga is the second biggest league for us, after La Liga; however, I think it’s better to view the games from a team perspective rather than a league perspective. The bigger clubs, whether from Spain, Brasil or Germany have a brand, and that brand carries weight when it comes to an audience.

Does using the DVR with your matches hurt your numbers?

No, we get a Live rating followed by Live+3 days, Live+7 days and Live+10 days. These latter option will pick up any taped viewers. However if you watch it live and tape it, it will show up on the Live rating.

Can we expect the promotion/relegation matches to be shown?

We have the rights to the games. Depending on programming priorities and the time of the matches, we are hopefully going to be able to show it.

And will you continue to show German National games?

That is a separate deal, not incorporated under the DFL package, but we do expect to continue showing German National games for the foreseeable future, especially World Cup Qualifiers.

Finally, two years ago you had a great promotion that sent two lucky viewers to German to watch two live matches. Can we expect anything like that in the future?

Currently we are running the Soccer Cam promotion w with a grand prize of a trip to the Emirates Cup this summer. After that is done, we are going to run another Bundesliga promotion.

Can I bribe you to win that?

(laughs) No.

Armin Veh was announced as Wolfsburg’s new manager after their title celebrations. The ex-Stuttgart manager will now try and replicate his 2008 Champions League form. It should be easier with the imminent loss of Dzeko and Misimovic.

Mario Gomez became the most expensive player in Bundesliga history, swapping Stuttgart red for Bayern red. Bayern paid €30 million for the striker. Or exactly €30 million more than they paid for either Klose or Olic. Stuttgart chairman is Erwin Staudt has been bombarded by calls from certain clubs in Bremen and Hamburg who want to know all about this thing called a transfer fee.

Diego shocked the football community by signing for Juventus. The Turin club paid Werder Bremen (yes this does wipe out that last joke) a hefty €24.5 million for the Brazilian playmaker. Seeing the Series A antics between Torino and Genoa this past weekend sealed the deal for the volatile #10, who loves handbags as much as football.

Martin Jol, having secured his customary 5th place finish, has decided to move to Ajax. The Netherlands’ only affable manager has decided that he doesn’t like being loved and will take on a job where he will be hated by sometime tomorrow.

Christian Eichner, the best left-back nobody knows, is set to move from Karlsruhe to Hoffenheim, proving once against that Ralf Rangnick has his act together.

Goalkeeper

Jaroslav Drobny (Hertha Berlin)
Make no mistake about it, Berlin’s rise from bottom half side to title contenders was based on defense. They were a hard side to break down and on the off-chance that a team did, there was Drobny to get by. His performance against Bayern was the stuff of legends.

Defenders

Nevin Subotic (Borussia Dortmund)

Borussia Dortmund had an outstanding season defensively. At the heart of it were youngsters, journeymen and a slew of injuries. Yet despite this their goal against was 37 and only slightly bettered by Schalke 04, who played a very defensive brand of football. The only consistent starter in Jurgen Klopp’s back four was Suba. Few 19 years old are ready to lead a back line in any major European league, but Subotic proved why he is the hottest defensive property in the universe by leading and leading well.

Matthieu Delpierre (Stuttgart)

When Delpierre plays, Stuttgart is a better team. Full stop! This has been true for the past four years, helping them to a cup, a league title and another late season run this year. Last year when he was injured most of the season, Stuttgart struggled. On top of his positioning and reading of the game, he has helped turn Sedar Tasci from a defender that caused one to cringe to a solid center half, who deservedly won his first call-up.

Pedro Geromel (Koln)

Last year’s best defender in Portugal has a case to be this year’s best defender in Germany. And he did it manning a poor back line in front of a dodgy keeper. If Koln keep him this summer, it will be one of the biggest shocks since Wolfsburg won the title.

Andrea Barzagli (Wolfsburg)

No Italian has made such a quick and decisive impact on the Bundesliga since the heady days of 2007/08. Unlike compatriot Zaccardo, Barzagli fit right in with Magath’s system and the league and his leadership at the back gave the the magic triangle time to work out the kinks. Much is lost the further you back on the Wolfsburg tactical lineup, but holder Josue, winger Gentner and keeper Benaglio could have all made this list as well.

Midfielders

David Jarolim (Hamburg SV)

With the loss of Van der Vaart, Manchester City poking massive holes in their center and Alex Silva’s histrionics, Martin Jol was still able to compete on three fronts despite an ever evolving midfield. One of the biggest factors was captain David Jarolim, who led the team, provided the cover for the back after De Jong left and still chipped in offensively with a pair of goals and three assists.

Petit (Koln)

While all three promotion sides survived this campaign, they each did it in a different way. Gladbach were just the best of a bad bunch, Hoffenheim attacked and Koln defended. And in order for Koln to shine with a keeper they weren’t keen to keep behind an inexperienced back line, they needed cover and someone to set the counter. Christoph Daum rebuilt the team around yjr veteran Portuguese holder, with Petit as the engine of the midfield rather than as the guy that just breaks up play. Providing cover along with Pezzoni and launching the attack from deep for the likes of Ehret, Vucicevic and Novakovic, Koln were a tough team all year. They may have had ups and downs, but they were safe very early for a promoted side thanks to the leadership and performance of the Pitbull.

Sejad Salahovic (Hoffenheim)

One of the things we quickly learned about Ralf Ragninck’s side was that he had accumulated a plethora of young talent. Salahovic was the most talented of the lot, providing expertise set pieces and being the wide outlet on Hoffenheim’s blistering counters. Along with Carlos Eduardo, they made a better 1-2 punch than Diego and Ozil until a mid-season team slump.

Zvjezdan Misimovic, Edin Dzeko and Grafite (Wolfsburg)

It wasn’t all defense, but the magic triangle was the difference between Wolfsburg and everyone else. Contributing a total of sixty goals and twenty-nine assists, these three were a steam-roller, crushing teams and putting them on the back foot all year long. Grafite and Dzeko became the first pair in Bundesliga history to score 20 goals from the same side. Dzeko turned out to be one of the best link forwards in Europe, pursued more than a baseball player by Madonna; meanwhile, Grafite was too strong for Bundesliga defenses, bulling his way to the scoring title despite a long absence. And Misimovic was just the best player in the league. It was his control of the pace and pinpoint passing that allowed the forwards the chances. These three were absolutely incredible.

Bench

Manuel Neuer (Schalke 04)

He had 84 saves and 11 clean sheets. And he was injured early in the season and missed 7 matches. And for a team that couldn’t score he had one assist. Neuer’s steady presence (along with his cutting out of young keeper errors) allowed him to overtake Rene Adler as the hot young keeper in Germany.

Joris Mathijsen (Hamburg)

Martin Jol overcame a lot to make it back to the UEFA Cup. He suffered as much injury as anybody. He obviously lost many of his best players in the summer and winter windows. He went too deep in too many competitions. But he survived and can build on his success next year. One reason for that is center half Mathijsen, who made 33 appearances and was the central figure in one of the Bundesliga’s stingiest defenses.

Heiko Westermann (Schalke 04)

He never played a position enough to be given consideration for any one. When asked, he provided excellent work at center-half, fullback, defensive midfielder and as a box-to-box. No matter the position, he played it well. And when Schalke was inept up top, Westermann was their leading scorer, helping to keep Fred Rotten in a job way too long.

Sebastian Kehl (Borussia Dortmund)

The steady presence in the back, he allowed the Kuba/Hajnal pairing to flourish early and late in the season. When he was injured Dortmund suffered their only long term slide. He’s the rock that Dortmund’s squad is built upon and with a few tweaks, Jurgen Klopp can build around him for a Championship run next year.

Franck Ribery (Bayern Munich)

As went Ribery, so went FC Bayern. He is the heart and soul of the Bavarian giants. Unfortunately, they rely too heavily upon him and that was part of their problem as he started the season injured and suffered with niggling issues throughout.

Mario Gomez (Stuttgart)

Super Mario is Super Mario. There’s not much more you can say about him, other than awesome. Oh, and please stay!

Artur Wichniarek (Arminia Bieliefeld)

While they came in last, it wasn’t the Polish international’s fault. He scored almost half of Bielefeld’s total goals and may well have kept them up had he not suffered late season injuries. And his 13 goals were scored without the benefit of a partner of any Bundesliga level service. No player was more important to their team than Wichniarek, and we don’t acknowledge those players enough.

We would love to hear your best XI of 2008/09. Please leave a comment!

Congratulations Wolfsburg, Champions of the Bundesliga!

Wolfsburg’s magical triangle all scored as the Wolves beat a deflated Werder Bremen 5-1 at home. Their home form was paramount in their unlikely title run as they took an incredible 49 points out of 51 during the campaign. It was incredibly important, as they didn’t start winning on the road until the second half of the season. Wolfsburg will also make their first appearance in the Champions League next year; however, they will not be joined by another new team: Hertha Berlin.

Only needing a win to ensure a Champions League spot, the team from the capital fell apart at Karlsruhe, 4-0. While they still have Europa League football next year, it is going to be difficult to canvas for replacements of their two forwards: Pantelic and Voronin without the benefit of Europe’s top competition. But will Lucien Favre now face the axe after taking so few points from the final four games to end their championsip aspirations and a chance at Champions League cash?

With the victory, Karlsruhe almost made a mini-miracle escape. They jumped two spots to the playoff position at the half, but Cottbus came charging back in the second half of their match with Bayer Leverkusen, scoring three goals after Arturo Vidal was sent off. Now Cottbus will face Mainz or Nuremburg for another year of top level football. Under current form, they should be favored. Arminia Bielefeld looked to have that playoff spot early, but squandered a lead at home to Hannover to end up bottom.

Gladbach ensured their survival with a draw at home against Dortmund, which ended Dortmund’s hopes of Europe as Hamburg won 3-2 late at Frankfurt. The Dinosaurs overcame the devastation of the encounters with Werder, which ended their Champions League aspirations and chances at DFB and UEFA Cup finals. A late goal by Piotr Trochowski sent Martin Jol’s men to fifth and another year of European football.

As for the match that should have meant more, the clash between Bayern and Stuttgart, a terse 2-1 victory for Bayern, was rendered inconsequential by Wolfsburg and Karlruhe’s large early leads. But Bayern do get automatic group stage Champions League next year, and that was the exact reason
they replaced Klinsmann with Heyneckes. And as for Stuttgart, despite the loss, they still made an impressive charge from mid-table under Markus Babbel to return to the Champions League next year. Not as impressive as 2007, but it still deserves huge praise.

Champions League Automatic: Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich
Champions League QUalifiation: Stuttgart
Europa League: Hertha Berlin and Hamburg
Promotion/Relegation Playoff: Energie Cottbus
Relegated: Karlsruhe and Arminia Bielefeld

The Meisterschaft will hinge on Wolfsburg, whom only need a draw at home to Werder Bremen, who wouldn’t been keen on helping Bayern Munich in the first place. Bremen also have the DFB Pokal final in a few days, so are likely to rest key (and tired) players after Wednesday’s heartbreaking loss to Shaktar. Wolfsburg, whom many predicted to fold after the news of Magath’s departure, look sharp again after two drubbings of Dortmund and Hannover.

Bayern could technically win the league with a Wolfsburg draw and nine goal victory over the visiting Swabians. But knowing that this is unlikely, Bayern are resigned to securing the automatic Champions League spot, which a draw would secure.

Unfortunately, they host the team that sits second in the second half form table. A win for the Swabians would secure them 2nd and could send Bayern Munich to the Europa League. Current form aside, Markus Babbel’s men need a victory to ensure Champions League next year with Hertha hot on their trail, so it is squeaky bum time for the Bavarian giants.

Hertha Berlin sit fourth at the moment, but a win away to lowly Karsruhe, who could still make it to the relegation/promotion match with a win, puts the Capital side in next year’s Champions League regardless of the outcome of Bayern-Stuttgart. Anything less and they will finish the day where they started.

The final Euopean battle comes down to Dortmund and Hamburg for the last Europa League spot. Sitting even on points, Dortmund posses a commanding goal difference. Dortmund visit Gladbach, who need a victory to ensure survival. Hamburg visit Eintracht who are already safe. Dortmund is the hotter side, so they have the upperhand, but a draw could see their late surge all for naught if Hamburg can overcome their late season doldrums.

In the relegation battle, all four teams host games this final weekend. Gladbach host Dortmund as was mentioned and Karlsruhe host Hertha Berlin. The other two teams attempting to avoid the drop are Cottbus, who host Leverkusen. Leverkusen also have the DFB Pokal next week and will rest some players ahead of their showdown with Werder Bremen. Arminia host Hannover in the final relegation game. With Artur Wichniarek back from injury, the could make the great escape considering their opponent.

Cologne host Bochum and Schake host Hoffenheim in the only matches without repercussions to the season.

GolTV will be showing a simulcast of the Bayern-Stuttgart, Wolfsburg-Werder matches along with a post game(s) victory show starting at 11:30 AM.

Meanwhile there is little drama in the Zweite where only a Nuremburg win coupled with a Mainz loss could see Nuremburg gain automatic promotion and Mainz in the playoff game, instead of the other way round. Meanwhile three teams fight to avoid the relegation game on the other end of the table, and all three are on the road. Rostock visits Wehen, Frankfurt visits St. Pauli and Osnabruck visit Duisburg. A win would secure any of these three, separated by two points, safety. If comes down to draws, Rostock have the upper hand with superior goal difference and a relegated foe. Freiburg is guaranteed of coming up and Ingolstadt and Wehen are heading down to the new 3. Bundeliga.

For us fans of German football it was a sad night, but for us football fans, it wasn’t. The Ukraine won their first European title with a team that earned it’s victory. And they were an attractive team to watch with Srna, Luiz Adriano, the Rat and Ilsinho making the core of a very entertaining side. They were able to check Werder’s counter attack and controlled the posession for most of the match. So while I send my condolences to Werder supporters, we should all be happy for the positive emergence of Ukranian football on the night. And let’s not forget the excellent atmosphere that starts first with Turkey and its football crazy fans who made up the neutrals.

As for the game, Shaktar came out firing on all cylinders and controlled play for the first 20 minutes. Only when Werder seemed to be getting some command of the game did Donetsk strike. A beautifully delivered Ilsinho through-ball, that turned the Bremen defense, found a wide open Luiz Adriano, who made up for his 5th minute miss with a the opener. Naldo hit back 10 minutes later on a free-kick, which was mishandled by the Donetsk keeper Pyatov. The second half was a stalemate with both sides having periods of dominance that petered out on poor finishing or good defending. A game that seemed destined for penalties as both teams tired, was decided early in extra time when Tim Wiese, who had been solid all game, allowed a dink shot by Jadson to skirt under him for the eventual winner. A late surge by Bremen resulted in two disallowed goals and Shaktar walked away with the spoils.

Seven Observances from the last UEFA Cup Final

Diego’s grand exit

Unfortunately we didn’t get to see Diego off with a grand flourish. This had turned into his tournament, but his temper saw him miss out on a chance to cap it. His indelible mark on the league may be that temper. A wonderfully gifted player to watch and a talisman during his three years at Werder Bremen, he has never produced the goods. Werder are without a trophy during his time, with their greatest accomplishment over that course being the winter title three years ago. While that could change next week in the DFB Pokal, one wonders if being so close to Werder’s first European Cup since Michael Keaton was Batman only to lose will leave Bremen listless during their final two games.

What To Do?

How will Thomas Schaaf cope without Diego. One of the games more attack minded managers, he has built his success on the counter, utilizing wing-play and a double six formation. But there needs to be a point in the midfield that can link the defense and wings with the forwards. Diego has been that man for three years. Will Schaaf change his approach or will some gem be uncovered elsewhere to be that point? Because it certainly isn’t….

Mesut Ozil

To say he isn’t ready to fill Diego’s shoes would be an understatement. He was a boy among men, incapable of a moment of inspiration, let alone commanding tempo, carrying the ball forward or setting up the chances. He was abject in this match and why he wasn’t pulled is a question we will all wonder for years to come. Pizarro has to be wondering it as he was left without a link man the entire match. What has become apparent is that he is basically the best guy you could imagine to take to a club as your wing-man, but you wouldn’t wanted him approaching any comely lasses on his own.

Speaking of the Lasses

If you were watching on television, what was with that female Werder fan starting her crying in the 7th minute of extra time? You moan before, whinge during, bitch after and cry in a beer. Those are the rules sister….learn them! Yes that goal seemed to be the nail at the time, but there were still 23 plus minutes for a team that had comeback from worse against A.C. Milan and Hamburg. To be honest, Pizzaro scored the equalizer in the 122nd. Not a foul! How anyone can start the histrionics at that juncture is beyond me.

Darijo Srna is the SHIT!

He was out of this world. We could see his quality in last year’s European Championship for Croatia, but he had become easy to forget playing in an up-and-coming but poorly-covered league. He traumatized poor Sebastian Boenisch, ran his boots off for 120 minutes, was the most effective defender at neutralizing the counter and saved the match when he got between Ozil and the goal late in the second half. I

On Werder’s end it was another right wing player, Clemens Fritz who deserves recognition for being Werder closest approximation of the whirling dervish that was Srna tonight.

Howling at the Moon

In the long run, they equaled out, but both keepers had amazing blunders that cost their teams tonight. Andrei Pyatov’s felt that Naldo’s freekick needed help and palmed Werder’s equalizer into the back of his net. On the other side, Tim Wiese used extraordinarily poor positioning to allow Jadson’s unremarkable shot to become a winner. Thinking about it, maybe that woman who was crying is a goal keeper.

If Only

While we can all rue the absence of Almeida, Per and Diego, deep into extra time the man who they needed popped up in black. His name was Thomas Schaaf. With time running down and the no Werder player seeming willing to get the ball back up field for the throw in (which would lead to a Pizarro chance), Schaaf jumped on the pitch and kicked the ball to the thrower. His quickness and determination stood in stark contrast to his players, who had seemed uninterested and to be running on fumes (other than Fritz and Pizarro) from the first minute.

Have goals ever been so important? With two games remaining, points are only marginally more important than goal difference in the hunt for survival, Europe and even the Meisterschaft.

Wolfsburg silenced the critics and showed their professionalism by keeping their outstanding home-form (remember the only points dropped at the VW were back in August) by crushing the hottest team in the Bundesliga: Dortmund. Despite the imminent departure of trainer Felix Magath, Wolfsburg showed that they are the team to beat in the Bundesliga. The 4-1 win was even more significant because Magath’s abandoned men lead Bayern on goal difference alone. With two more goals than the Bavarian giants, the Wolves seem destined for their first championship with weak opposition in the final two matches.

But just as I said Wolfsburg could afford a loss at Stuttgart and still carry the title, the margin of that loss (3 goals) means they could win their two remaining games and still lose the title. Two one goal wins and Bayern only need to wallop Hoffenheim at home and scrape by Stuttgart to pull off another championship. However TSG is back on form and Stuttgart is probably the best team in the Bundesliga at the moment.

With one point separating them from Bayern and Wolfsburg, one would think their inferior goal difference might count the Swabians out. But a big win at home to lowly Cottbus and it could take as little as a two goal win at the Allianz (and betting against the possibility would be as foolish as having picked Schalke to win the title this year) if Wolfsburg stumble as well. However unlikely, Stuttgart’s goal difference still plays a part. With one point separating them a Hertha in 3rd, Stuttgart’s eight point lead in that category could be the difference between the fiscally wealthy Champions League and the lower middle class Europa League.

Speaking of the poorer but funner European competition, Hamburg lead Dortmund for the final spot by three points; however, Jurgen Klopp’s side has a vastly superior goal difference. A slip-up by the Dinosaurs and Dortmund could snatch Europe from Martin Jol because his forwards weren’t up to the task.

Finally at the bottom of the table, Cottbus are hampered by poor goal difference. Without a win, they can’t avoid relegation. Even a draw would level them on points with Bochum, but they would still face a relegation playoff on goal difference. Arminia need a win as well to avoid the playoff. However with Bochum’s poor form, they could get a draw and catch Bochum on goal difference which is only 3 goals in favor of VfL at the moment. Gladbach could only be drawn back into the relegation zone with no points and an Arminia win or two by Cottbus. But even in that worst case scenario, they have Bochum as a cushion and would have to lose both of their final matches significantly.

This year, more than ever, goal difference matters.

See the full picture here!

Football Shirt Culture has released a photo of next season strips for the current Bundesliga sides.

What do people think? I am loving Dortmund’s shirts for next season. My favorite strip might be Hertha’s third shirt, followed by Gladbach’s 2nd. Hannover’s shirt are just terrible. And I’ll miss Bayern’s hoops.

While yesterday’s antics by Chelsea and the drama in dying minutes get all the coverage, today’s semi-final matchup between Werder Bremen and Hamburg provided significantly more bang for the buck, and a real game to boot. And while there were a few questionable calls, the only German to cover himself in shame, this week, was Mannschaft captain Michael Ballack.

Entering the return leg with a 1-0 lead and a road goal, Martin Jol’s side had the distinct advantage at home in the Nordbank Arena. While the match started tepidly, especially compared to the end-to-end first leg, things changed in the 13th minute. After Pizarro missed a chance for Werder, Hamburg hit on the counter and co-captian Mathijssen hit Olic who waited for Tim Weise to commit before giving HSV a two goal lead.

The way Werder were playing, this looked like the end for Thomas Schaaf’s men. For 120 minutes, they had been absolutely anemic in front of goal. They had dominated possession and created over 20 chances during that stretch, yet couldn’t find the back of the net as their strike force looked to be boys playing against men.

But as has been the case on this remarkable run in the UEFA Cup, Diego stepped up and carried the team. On the half hour mark, he gathered the ball deep in HSV territory. He then played a slick give-and-go with Pizarro, losing his marker much too easily. Getting the ball back free in the box, he leveled the score, giving Werder their first sign of hope. Seven minutes later, he almost gave Werder the advantage when he blasted a long range attempt that Frank Rost was able to deflect onto the bar to save Hamburg’s skin.

Rost wasn’t the only keeper on fire, Weise made six saves, three of them critically important to the final outcome. In the 23rd, he stopped Olic; in the 38th, he stopped Janssen; and, in the 70th he stopped Alex Silva. While Weise’s form never dipped, Rost did have one shocking moment that may have cost the hosts a trip to Turkey. The second goal came when Pizarro gathered a ball near the box, turned by Alex Silva and launched a salvo at the HSV goal. Rost should have saved it, but his reaction was slow and the ball bounced by him. Werder had leveled and were in command on away-goals.

Controversially, they got a third in the 83rd minute, when a projectile caused a back pass by Michael Gravgaard to go out for a corner. The resulting set piece found Captain Frank Baumann unmarked and he headed the third goal in for the tie-winner. What followed was a hectic final 7 minutes, where Hamburg clawed themselves back into the tie when Olic scored from a Boateng cross in the 87th. But that was as close as they came.

Ineviteably, despite the projectile, Hamburg didn’t deserve to win. A Pizarro goal was called offside erroneously in the 52nd, while Pitroipa failed to connect with a sublime low cross by Janssen in the 69th. The ball then fell to Trochowski, but Weise proved why he was the MOM with another brilliant save.

Werder Bremen will now travel to Istanbul in 13 days time to face Shakhtar Donetsk for the UEFA Cup. But they will do so without their talisman Diego, who will miss the game after his third yellow for a shoving match with Alex Silva in the first half. Most importantly, neither Hamburg players nor the Hamburg faithful saw need to attack the ref, swear on camera or make a death threat. Reason #8 why the Bundesliga is better than the EPL.

Wolfsburg has issued an official statement saying that Felix Magath will leave the club on June 30th of this year. Magath is bound for Schalke as has been rumored all week, although we still await confirmation from the Gelsenkirchen side.

While many claims have been made by the press about Magath’s salary demands, it wasn’t the salary as much as the recession that caused this move. Volkswagon, like all car makers, are facing tough times and are being forced to lay off workers. With a tightening of the belt at the renowned car maker, it wasn’t possible for VW to eliminate jobs and then pay large sums for football players. That’s unfortunate when you have the only English-style gaffer in the league and he has a transfer policy that would put Harry Redknapp to shame. While in charge of the Wolves for only two seasons, Magath has amassed 30+ transactions in what is essentially 18 months. While there is no arguing with his method and one can see he has an eye for talent (Gentner, Dzeko, Grafite, Misomivic), his ability to continue tweaking his team was done.

With rumors that Grafite and Dzeko were being lined up by uber-rich Zenit and Arsenal, respectively, it seems there may have been some truth to these links as the club were seeking to cash in. Magath realizing that he wouldn’t be able to significantly alter his club in its first campaign in the Champions League, decided to move on to a club where transfers wouldn’t be an issue. The salary was just a shot across the bow to set this series of events in motion.

Schalke, and not Bayern, will be the big spenders this summer. Can Magath do for them, what he has done for Wolfsburg? I imagine so.

It has been an interesting week in rumors.

First the managers!

Hoffenheim will say goodbye to Ralf Rangnick because he wants to spend money this summer. They will then say hello to Jurgen Klinsmann, who is the epitome of frugality. After all, he only forced Bayern to rebuild it’s training facility.

Meanwhile the possessors of Klinsmann’s Buddha statues look certain to fill his vacancy with AZ’s Louis Van Gaal who must be dreaming of the Europa league.

And as the man Bayern fired for being too successful looks certain to join Schalke after working wonders at Wolfsburg, the Wolves are sniffing around Frank Rijkaard. It is a testament to how good Magath is that we can hear a rumor like than and not laugh.

As for the players.

Bayern Munich.
So in the same week we heard that Bayern couldn’t afford to meet the €10 million evaluation by Fiorentina for Sebastian Frey, we heard that they are going to spend €26 million on Werder’s Diego to replace Frey’s buddy Franck Ribery. But not to worry for the cash-strapped Bavarians. Manchester United want to spend €62.5 million on their French wizard, which should allow them to buy a replacement and hopefully stay solvent.

It will even allow them to spend €5 million on Tom Huddlestone of Tottenham Hotspur. However, that ridiculous rumor is predicated on Martin Jol being the next manager. What nobody has asked, is why hasn’t Jol made a play for his former starlet at Hamburg yet.

Borussia Monchengladbach
Marko Marin, who should be higher on most radars than Edin Dzeko, as he will leave if Gladbach are relegated, has only been linked with Hamburg so far. And that’s under the assumption that they are going to lose Piotr Trochowski to Everton or Arsenal. At €9 million, I can’t believe this kid hasn’t been linked with just about every club in Europe. I would love to see him at Spurs.

Werder Bremen
Diego! Please pick a team already. You and Ribery are boring me to tears.

Wolfsburg
Edin Dzeko has fooled everyone in England into thinking he’s the next big thing. While he has a lot of potential, he has Misomivic and Grafite to make him look good presently. So someone in England is going to overspend on him, only to find that he’s actually still a work-in-progress. Don’t get me wrong, he has the potential to be a great player, but he’s not there yet and English teams aren’t patient enough typically to see him through to his full development.

Bayer Leverkusen
The Werkself picked up Sami Hyypia on a free. Fantastic signing, but does that mean the end of Henrique?

Hertha Berlin
Auxerre forward Benoit Pedretti is being heavily linked with the capital club, who will be desperate for a forward if Pantelic leaves and Voronin returns to Liverpool.

Stuttgart
The return of the prodigal son seems imminent as Alexandre Hleb looks set to leave Barcelona’s bench. I’m not sure he’ll be much more than a sub at Stuttgart though.

Hannover 96
Wolfsburg Alexander Madlung, who is available on a free, is close to joining the reds, if HSV doesn’t make a last minute offer.

We have a month to go to decide the title. But whereas Hoffenheim, Hamburg and Hertha faltered under the pressure of being league leaders, we find that Wolfsburg’s biggest strength is having no “H” in their name. After a loss to Cottbus, they bounced backed emphatically this weekend and looked poised for their first title. Let’s look at the run-in to the title for the five possible winners.

1. Wolfsburg (60 pts, +30 gd)

away to Stuttgart
home to BVB
away to Hannover 96
home to Werder

What we know: they will win the home games. They are just too strong at home to even concede a point to either the hot Dortmund or the faltering Bremen. What we don’t know: how they will fare away to Stuttgart and Hannover. The loss to Energie might have been the best thing for this side as it brought the focus back, and as other teams tire, this side still has it’s engines. The most important thing is that they can afford to lose to Stuttgart and still win the title easily with their remaining three seeming nine points that they should take.

prediction: 10 points

2. Bayern Munich (57 pts, +23 gd)

away to Cottbus
home to Leverkusen
away to Hoffenheim
home to Stuttgart

The good news is that they beat Gladbach. The bad news is that they were less than convincing outside of a 20 minute spell. While Cottbus and Hoffenheim are definites (Energie can’t do it two years in a row, can they?), their home ties are not easy. Leverkusen seems to be coming out of a slump, and the last team you want to face on pentultimate game is Stuttgart. In the long run, Heyneckes’ bump coincided with two poorer sides and by the time he faces the 2 out of 3 challenging final games, Bayern could find themselves losing the title on a draw.

prediction: 7 points

3. Hertha Berlin (56 pts, +8 gd)

home to Bochum
away to Koln
home to Schalke
away to Karlsruhe

So a few weeks ago, I claimed that HSV would be Lucien Favre’s only probably loss. However they drew the Dinosaurs and were knocked down by Stuttgart. But with four games to play, it is almost impossible to see where they will lost a point. That means they need Wolfsburg to slip up in it’s away matches, and with Stuttgart next weekend, they could see themselves in pole position sooner rather than later.

prediction: 12 points

4. Stuttgart (55 pts, +5 gd)

Home to Wolfsburg
away to Schalke
home to Cottbus
away to Bayern Munich

A few weeks back, I called them the king makers, as they had confrontations with all the principal players in the title run. How they responded until this weekend’s slip was to make claim for the crown. They could still do this as the Swabians face the Wolves and Bayern in two six-pointers. Win their remaining four games, and Markus Babbel’s side could make another improbably run. However even if they beat Wolfsburg, they have to hope that the current leaders lose their impeccable home form or slip against a hot/cold Hannover.

prediction: 10 points

5. Hamburg (55 pts, +2 gd)

away to Werder Bremen
home to Bochum
home to Koln
away to Frankfurt

Hamburg have the biggest hurdle but arguable the easiest run in. Werder is slipping and needs to concentrate on the two cups. The three remaining games should be nine points, but Hamburg is showing signs of wearing down. Few Bundesliga teams have the depth to handle extended runs in two cups and a push for the championship. This week, they take on Werder two more times and we will understand a lot more about Martin Jol’s side after the last of these endless North derbies.

prediction: 10 points

It would seem to me that Wolfsburg has too easy a run-in and too great a goal difference to lose the title. Meanwhile, Stuttgart and Hertha Berlin should be playing Champions League next year, while Bayern Munich could be in for a big shock and the arrogant leaders of the club could face the boot as they will be hard pressed for a Europa spot.

Final Predicted Table

Wolfsburg – 70
Hertha Berlin – 68
Stuttgart – 65
Hamburg – 65
Bayern Munich – 64

With three of their four remaining games on the road, Bochum, who has won only two away all season, will be hard pressed to find any points in tough away fixtures in Berlin, Hamburg or Koln. Their only home match will be against Eintracht Frankfurt, but with four losses in a row, there is reason to worry about that match as well. So with few points to be seen in the final four games, both Arminia Bielefeld and even Borussia Monchengladbach could squeak by them.

Say Bochum only have one more point in them all season, then the two other relegation candidates mentioned above only need 4 and 5 points respectively to pass them. With both having easier run-ins, it is quite possible. Gladbach have Cottbus and Leverkusen road games, where there is a possibility of points as well as a home match on the final day against Dortmund, who may not show up if Europe isn’t a possibility. Meanwhile, Arminia have an away match as well to Leverkusen (and who can’t win at the LDU?*) as well as home ties with Hoffenheim and a now safe Hannover.

I find it hard to see where Bochum can hold off Arminia. Bochum might be faced with hoping that the great escape artists Energie Cottbus fall apart and stay one behind them. Of course Cottbus face Karlsruhe this weekend and that faint hope could soon be gone.

It’s no wonder that the Bochum faithful were so harsh on the players tonight.

* The answer: Bayer Leverkusen